Archive for August, 2007

A two-state deal in the making?

Tuesday, August 7th, 2007

Israeli PM Olmert and President Peres have strongly denied reports that they are talking about a two-state deal with the Palestinians that will allow Israel to keep about 5% of the heavily Jewish portions of the West Bank, while compensating the Palestinians with some Arab-populated territory within the 1967 lines, with the consent of the residents.

Although this would be a rational way of bringing about a two-state solution, insofar as any such solution could be made to work, it is impossible for at least two reasons.

First, very few Arab citizens of Israel, no matter how ‘Palestinized’ they may have become, will be prepared to trade the conditions they enjoy in Israel for life in a Palestinian state governed by the Islamist Hamas or the corrupt Fatah.

And second, the PA is not interested in “populated-area exchange” because they see the Israeli Arab population as a lever to put pressure on Israel, even as a possible fifth column in the event of a regional war. The last thing they want is fewer Arabs inside Israel.

M.K. Avigdor LiebermanIn fact, a form of this plan was proposed by right-wing cabinet minister Avigdor Lieberman in 2004:

The Lieberman Plan suggests a territorial exchange whereby Israel would acquire most Jewish regions in the West Bank at the same time as it would cede Arab regions of Israel to the Palestinian Authority. There are three major Arab regions in Israel, all contigious with the West Bank; (1) the southern and central Galilee, (2) the central region known as “the Triangle” and (3) the Bedouin region in the northern part of the Negev desert. Giving up these three regions would reduce the number of Israeli Arab citizens by 90%. Only those Arabs living in isolated villages and as minorities in Jewish cities would remain. The ethnically Druze community which is Zionist would also remain part of Israel. All remaining citizens whether Jews or Arabs would have to pledge an oath of allegiance to the state in order to keep their Israeli citizenship.

It would be ironic indeed to find Shimon Peres and Avigdor Lieberman on the same side of this issue, but even if the report is true, it’s certain that an Olmert/Peres plan would differ significantly from Lieberman’s. In response to the rumor, Lieberman said,

“I welcome the acceptance of my idea of population exchanges, because there is no other solution… The solution must include all of the settlement blocs and leave Jerusalem united under Israeli sovereignty. But there is no sense in talking about a Palestinian state until the PA proves itself.”

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Ehud Barak’s 20-20 hindsight

Monday, August 6th, 2007

I haven’t found the actual Hebrew text yet, but here is how the Jerusalem post reports the just-released testimony of Ehud Barak before the Winograd commission (tasked to investigate the failures associated with the Second Lebanon War):

[New Defense Minister,] Labor Party leader and former prime minister Ehud Barak told the Winograd Committee that after the kidnapping of two soldiers and the killing of eight others on July 12, 2006, it was inevitable that the government would launch a broad attack against Hizbullah, because it was led by civilians and had a new chief of General Staff, Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz.

He added that although he did not publicly express criticism at first, he had his doubts that this was the right choice.

“I told friends: ‘Let’s wait three weeks. It might turn out that you will come to realize that we had two prime ministers [referring to himself and Ariel Sharon] who were not so confused and not so blind, but rather felt sufficient peace of mind and self-confidence to determine when and how [we would strike] and that [the other side] would not force a second front upon us.”

Does the arrogance stand out? It does to me — especially coming from the guy who presided over the IDF’s flight from South Lebanon in 2000, which allowed Hezbollah to transform itself from an irritation to a serious threat.

We’ll never know how he would actually have reacted in the summer of 2006 if he had been in a position of responsibility. But I’m afraid that Hezbollah and Syria will soon give him a chance to demonstrate the quality of his judgment.

At least he’ll know to remove the lens caps from his binoculars.

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A Palestinian state tomorrow?

Monday, August 6th, 2007

There seem to be two views of the path ahead for the Palestinians. There is the American/Israeli view that Israel can negotiate the establishment of some kind of Palestinian state with the Abbas/Fayed administration in the West Bank:

It is our mutual aim to reach the joint vision of establishing two states for two peoples living side by side in peace and security and “we want to do this as soon as possible,” Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas during Monday afternoon’s meeting in Jericho.

Olmert sought to give Abbas the feeling that he had real intentions to move forward with the establishment of a Palestinian state and the two spoke of the fundamental issues that would be the basis for its creation. — Jerusalem Post

And there is the other view, held by Hamas — but also in circles opposed to Hamas — that Palestinian unity is a prerequisite to statehood:

Jibril Rajoub, a former PA security commander closely associated with Abbas, also saw no purpose in the meeting, saying that the Israeli government was incapable of advancing the peace process.

Rajoub, who had just returned from Egypt, urged Abbas to restore contacts with Hamas and to put an end to the situation of “two Palestinian Authorities - one in Gaza and the other in the West Bank.”

Both of these points of view assume that the creation of a Palestinian state should be the primary goal today. Many of those who believe that the only practical solution to the conflict is a two-state solution believe that the way to get there is to start with the two states. And some others believe that the way to get to a one (Palestinian) state solution is also to start with the two states.

But there are two big problems that have to be solved first.

One is that the ‘moderate’ Palestinian and Israeli bottom lines on certain issues are simply incompatible. These issues, of course, are borders, Jerusalem, and refugees. They can’t be negotiated away. This means that one side or another will have to be forced to agree. This does not bode well for the ultimate solution being a peaceful one.

The second big problem is that Hamas can’t be part of the process — because their bottom line doesn’t include Israel at all — but at the same time it is impossible to ignore them (after all, they are fighting a low-level war against Israel and preparing for a high-level one).

If we need to solve these problems before establishing the Palestinian state, how can we do it? I admit to being biased toward a solution which implies the continued existence of the State of Israel.

Let’s look at the second problem — Hamas — first. To borrow a phrase from Ted Belman, there is only a military solution to Hamas. I can’t think of a way to be less popular with my progressive friends than to advocate war, but a war of self-defense is a just war, and this would definitely be a war of self-defense.

Interestingly, a solution to Hamas would also be a solution to the first problem. I believe that the ‘moderate’ Palestinians have highly unrealistic positions because they believe that they are attainable by a combination of military pressure — from terrorists such as Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as nations like Syria — with diplomatic and economic leverage applied to the West by, for example, Saudi Arabia (this calls their ‘moderation’ into question, but that’s another topic).

So a demonstration that Israel cannot be defeated by terrorism would go a long way toward giving a voice to those Palestinians who are prepared to take positions on the major issues that are compatible with a true two-state solution, one in which Israel continues to exist. But this is not going to happen as long as Hamas is able to pursue its program.

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Iran sentences journalists to death

Sunday, August 5th, 2007

The BBC reports:

Iran has sentenced two dissident journalists from its ethnic Kurdish minority [to die] for being “enemies of God”.

Rights watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF), says Adnan Hassanpour and Hiva Boutimar were sentenced by a court in the eastern city of Marivan…

Iran has executed over 100 people so far in 2007, most of them by hanging.

A spokesman for the Iranian judiciary said that the two journalists had “taken arms to topple the system”.

How often do journalists “take arms”?

Usually they write stuff. Reporters Without Borders says,

At [Hassanpour’s] trial, which was held behind closed doors, he was found guilty of “activities subverting national security” and “spying.” His interviews for foreign news media including Voice of America were cited by the prosecution. According to his family and one of his lawyers, Sirvan Hosmandi, he was transferred to Sanandaj prison on 18 July.

They have 20 days (from July 16) to appeal.

With a total of nine journalists currently detained, Iran continues to be the Middle East’s biggest prison for the press and one of the world’s ten most repressive countries as regards freedom of expression in the media.

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The Teflon ‘moderate’

Sunday, August 5th, 2007

This makes me furious:

Palestinians have paid a heavy price for the capture of IDF soldier Cpl. Gilad Schalit and there is no need to continue holding him in captivity, Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas said Sunday, adding that it was possible to reach a deal to secure the soldier’s release with the help of Egyptian mediation. — Jerusalem Post

So now Israel needs to pay yet again, a price payable in freed Hamas murderers?

In my opinion, the problem is that Palestinians have not yet paid a high enough price — one high enough to cause them to release Schalit.

Speaking of prices paid, something which occurred to me (and seems to have occurred to some Fatah people) is that Abbas, the Teflon ‘moderate’, doesn’t seem to have paid much of a price himself for the Hamas takeover of Gaza. It seems that he’s getting more money and arms than ever, and now has center stage in the new, revitalized ‘peace’ process.

At last, the Palestinians now know why Hamas managed to capture the entire Gaza Strip so easily and without facing tough resistance, if any. It’s all because of 60 Fatah security officers and political operatives who freaked out and fled to the West Bank and Egypt instead of remaining in their positions to thwart the Hamas “coup.”

The 60 “culprits” were implicated in a 200-page report that was delivered to Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah last weekend by members of a special commission of inquiry that spent a whole month probing the reasons behind Fatah’s humiliating defeat.

Headed by Tayeb Abdel Rahim, a top Abbas aide and veteran Fatah operative, the commission has become known among Palestinians as the Tayebograd Commission - along the lines of the Winograd Committee that investigated last summer’s war between Israel and Hizbullah.

But unlike the Winograd Report, the Palestinian commission chose to lay most of the blame on some of Fatah’s security commanders and low-level political activists…

“We kept warning President Abbas that Hamas was planning a coup in the Gaza Strip and that it was training its men and smuggling weapons into the Gaza Strip, but he did not take us seriously,” said a senior PA security commander who fled from the Gaza Strip to Ramallah. “Our president chose to negotiate with Hamas leaders Khaled Mashaal and Ismail Haniyeh about political partnership even while it was obvious that Hamas was planning to stage a bloody coup in the Gaza Strip.” — Khaled Abu Toameh, in the Jerusalem Post

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This isn’t news anymore

Saturday, August 4th, 2007

The media in the US barely mention this stuff anymore:

A massive terror attack was foiled Saturday night when an IAF air strike on two vehicles near the southern Gaza Strip’s border with Egypt killed two Palestinians, including an Islamic Jihad operative, and wounded 21 others, the IDF said.

The army said that one of the vehicles was carrying Islamic Jihad operatives and was filled with explosive devices including suicide bomb belts.

The group, said the IDF, was on its way to carry out a huge terror attack against Israelis…

Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for firing a rocket into a Sderot neighborhood shortly before the air strike, but it was not clear if they were the same group hit by the IAF strike. Two more rockets were fired at the western Negev on Saturday night. No casualties or damage were reported as a result of the Kassam attacks. — Jerusalem Post

Rockets are falling on southern Israel every day. Hamas still holds Gilad Shalit. Hezbollah still holds Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, if indeed they are alive.

These facts represent violations of international law. They represent denials of basic human rights to Israelis. If you listen to pro-Palestinian voices, you hear the same stuff over and over: Israel mistreats us, Israel denies us our rights, Israel builds an annoying fence, etc.

How can anyone miss the fact that Palestinians (and others) are trying to kill Israelis and the only thing that prevents them from doing so is the army?

Isn’t it reasonable to think that you would be tempted to treat someone badly if he is trying to kill you, in fact, if he has been trying to kill your family since the beginning of the 20th century?

Just sweep away all the accusations and counter-accusations and you are left with the simple fact that Arabs have always wanted to kill Jews in the Middle East, and Jews (and later Israelis) have responded in various ways to protect themselves.

This isn’t news anymore.

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The coming Palestinian unity government

Friday, August 3rd, 2007

Palestinian reconciliation?

Secret talks aimed at solving internal Palestinian instability are being held between Hamas and Fatah officials, Ma’an reported on Friday.

According to the Palestinian news agency, the aim of the negotiations was to reestablish the Palestinian Authority unity government which crumbled several weeks ago. — Jerusalem Post

It’s impossible to expect that the situation in which there are two Palestinian “governments” can continue forever.

It isn’t likely that Hamas will disappear. Fatah isn’t capable of destroying it, and it won’t go away on its own.

Israel and the US seem wedded to the idea that they have a moderate partner in Fatah, and that the quick signing of a peace agreement with them that will produce some kind of Palestinian state will somehow render Hamas irrelevant.

But no agreement that can be signed can possibly include enough concessions to make this happen. Imagine what Israel would have to give up on the issues of borders, refugees and Jerusalem!

So the more likely scenario is that Israel will be dealing with another Palestinian unity government before too long, whether or not a ‘peace’ treaty has been agreed to.

Hamas, after its conquest of Gaza, has a much stronger position toward Fatah than before, so it’s hard to believe that it won’t end up dominating the government, de facto if not in number of ministers.

So the situation will be that all of the military ‘bolstering’ that the US has done for Fatah will be accessible to Hamas, as will international aid funds (since everyone will have to recognize the unity government).

Further, if a ‘peace’ treaty has been signed with Fatah, Israel will certainly have been forced to make real compromises on the major issues in order to get it. But what will it be worth?

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Rational Thailand and the irrational Mideast

Friday, August 3rd, 2007

The increasing frequency of terrorist attacks by Islamists in Thailand gets very little play in the US media. Commentator Barry Rubin describes some of the reasons why the rational, pragmatic Thais have difficulty understanding the Middle Eastern mindset that gives rise to the phenomenon.

Reading the Middle East in Bangkok

By Barry Rubin

Bangkok

A fascinating way to try to improve one’s own understanding of the Middle East is to try to explain the region to people from a totally different culture and history. I’ve done this in several far-flung places around the world but Thailand provides a particularly interesting example of the particularity and–in global terms–bizarre nature of the Middle East.

(more…)

Christian Zionism comes to Fresno

Thursday, August 2nd, 2007

I’ve written about Dr. John Hagee and Christians United for Israel (CUFI) before. There is no question that this man and his organization are tremendously controversial among American Jews today. Jewish objections to CUFI come from those who disagree with their belief that Israel should maintain control over the territories, from those who are bothered by Hagee’s socially conservative positions on other issues, and those who believe that CUFI has an ulterior motive — that they actually wish to exacerbate conflict in the Middle East in order to bring about the second coming (Christian Zionists strongly deny this, saying that it doesn’t make theological sense).

On the other hand, many Jews accept the Christian Zionists’ explanation that they are following biblical injunctions to bless the Jewish People, and that they believe God wants the Jews to possess the Land of Israel — and are very happy to accept their help in the unequal struggle between Israel and her enemies.

In the very near future (September 9), CUFI and a new local organization called the “Judeo-Christian Alliance for Israel” (JCAI) will be holding a “Night to Honor Israel” here in Fresno. The object of the event is to generate interest in helping Israel among the Christian community and to raise funds.

One of the founders of the JCAI is John Somerville, a long-time Christian Zionist. Somerville told me that he expects most of the attendees to be Christians, and that

We will ask them to financially contribute to an as yet un-named project in Israel, which will be solely selected by the Jewish Federation. All the money will go directly to Israel, none of it will go to CUFI or JCAI. Nor will any of it go towards the cost of putting on the event. All of the money that has been spent so far, rent of the amphitheater, insurance, printing, travel and lodging for speakers, lights, sound, etc., came from one individual who went to Israel with me last year.

Somerville listed the goals of JCAI as follows:

  • To encourage meaningful and supportive relationships between Christians and Jews.
  • To educate and equip Christians to identify with Israel, the Jewish people, and the biblical/Hebraic foundations of the Christian faith.
  • To bless Israel and the Jewish people in Israel and worldwide, through practical assistance, volunteer service, and prayer.
  • To communicate Christian perspectives to the attention of US and Israeli leaders.
  • To demonstrate to the US Jewish community through action and information that Christian Zionism is a reflection of God’s love in the heart of Christians for the Jewish people and the Jewish state and not a veiled attempt to convert or subvert their Jewishness or their beliefs.
  • To counter Anti-Semitism and media misinformation while promoting Israel’s God-given right to exist in her God-given land.

Central California is an interesting place, with an extremely diverse population. Among the Armenians, Hispanics, Hmong, Japanese, Mennonites, Sikhs, and many others there is a large group that traces its origins to the dustbowl of the 1930’s. They brought a strong evangelical tradition with them, which took root and flourished and now finds its expression in several massive megachurches and numerous smaller ones. If you can say there is a ‘dominant culture’ here, this is it.

I think the tiny Jewish community — and especially those who strongly support Israel — can’t afford to ignore this phenomenon, which could represent part of a major historic change in the relationship between Christians and Jews.

From my point of view, I welcome it.

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The Protocols of the Elders of Durban

Wednesday, August 1st, 2007

There is an international conspiracy that reaches throughout the world, a conspiracy that is supported by you and me, citizens of the developed nations of world.

This conspiracy involves the UN and the very well-funded network of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) associated with the UN. We can call it the “Durban conspiracy”, after the UN-sponsored Durban Conference on Racism of 2001, where NGOs ambushed Israel (and ignored actual racist regimes), passing resolution after resolution accusing her of racism, ethnic cleansing, genocide, state terrorism, colonialism, denial of self-determination, apartheid, crimes against humanity, etc.

It was at Durban that the strategy of delegitimizing and discrediting Israel in order to isolate and weaken her was fully articulated. The ultimate goal is to destroy. There’s no other way to understand it.

Now, having long since taken control of the UN, the tentacles of the conspiracy are infiltrating that other bastion of progressive modern civilization, the European Union (EU):

The United Nations has scheduled an “International Conference of Civil Society in Support of Israeli-Palestinian Peace”, to be held in the European Parliament in Brussels, August 30-31. This misleading [title] not withstanding, this annual conference is held under the auspices of the Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People, and the International Coordinating Network for Palestine – frameworks that promote the conflict through NGOs involved in implementing the Durban agenda of demonization. This year, for the first time, the exercise is gaining the legitimacy of sponsorship by the European Parliament, further highlighting the role that the Europe Union plays in supporting the radical NGO campaign. — NGO Monitor

If you still think that there is some possibility that this conference may actually be about peace rather than support for anti-Israel activities, note that topics include

“The situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and civil society response”, “Action by civil society organizations working in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem”, workshops on “Fortieth anniversary of occupation: building on action taken by civil society…”, and “Strengthening campaigns to end occupation, including grassroots campaigns against the wall, rallying around Bil’in”

But this is just the tip of the iceberg. Did you know that our UN contains a “Division for Palestinian rights“? Here are a few of the things it does:

  • Organizing the annual commemoration of the International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People;
  • Preparing studies and publications relating to the question of Palestine and the inalienable rights of the Palestinian people and promoting their widest possible dissemination, including in cooperation with the Department of Public Information;
  • Maintaining liaison with NGOs which are active on the issue;
  • Maintaining and developing the Web-based United Nations Information System on the Question of Palestine (UNISPAL).

UN postage stamp from UNISPALUNISPAL is impressive, by the way, containing audio, multimedia, photographs, etc. There are no pictures of Qassam rockets, but here’s a nice one of a postage stamp.

And I haven’t mentioned the “Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967” who is required by his mandate to only see the Palestinian side of any story, or indeed the United Nations Human Rights Council:

By the beginning of 2007, the Council had passed eight resolutions condemning Israel, and none condemning any other country. More resolutions targeting Israel have been proposed for upcoming sessions. Israel, the United States and some human rights groups raised concerns about this revival of a practice of the UN’s discredited former Commission on Human Rights. — Wikipedia

These are some of the official UN agencies that exist only to target Israel. There are also more than a hundred NGOs listed by NGO watch, funded by governments, the UN, the EU, etc. that take the side of the Palestinians. Many of these are hard-core anti-Zionist organizations that exist only to support the anti-Israel cause. These were the perpetrators of the Durban conference.

So the next time someone tells you that there is a well-funded international conspiracy working behind the scenes to control the policies of nations, the contents of media, and even the minds of ordinary people, you will know exactly what he or she is talking about.

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The ADL and the Armenian Genocide

Wednesday, August 1st, 2007

Recently I wrote about attending a lecture by a Holocaust denier at a local church. It was upsetting to listen to the speaker’s repeated statements that yes, a lot of Jews died, it was war after all, but there was no concerted effort on the part of Hitler and the Nazis to wipe out the Jewish people.

The speaker had an answer for everything, and it’s impossible to respond to every ‘fact’ that someone can invent. It takes painstaking research, and by that time they have invented another ‘fact’. So even though historical facts — this happened or it didn’t — are absolutely true or false, there is no absolute proof in history the way there is in mathematics.

But after a while the weight of the evidence, the preponderance of the research, becomes so overwhelming that we can say that we know, beyond a reasonable doubt, that such-and-such did occur. At this point, ‘revisionist’ history stops being constructive, and we need to look for motives behind it other than a disinterested search for truth. This is the way it is with the Holocaust.

And this is the way it is for the Armenian Genocide.

Which brings me to Watertown Massachusetts, where local Armenians are asking the city to remove itself from an ADL program (”No Place for Hate”) because the ADL does not take a position on the Armenian Genocide and lobbied against a congressional resolution calling on the US to recognize it:

[ADL director Abraham] Foxman said he is surprised that he has become a target of Armenians. The ADL, a group founded in 1913 to fight anti-Semitism, has no official position on the Armenian genocide, he said.

“I’m not going to be the arbiter of someone else’s history,” he said in the interview, adding that he does not believe that Congress should either. When asked specifically if what happened to Armenians under the Ottoman Empire was genocide, he replied, “I don’t know.” The ADL only takes positions, he said, on current events, not on something that happened in the past.

Many groups oppose the resolution, including of course the Turkish Republic — although the resolution makes it quite clear that the guilty party was the Ottoman Empire. However, general international recognition of the genocide might make it possible for Armenians to claim compensation from Turkey. Turkey has applied pressure in many directions, including that of the US State Department which is concerned about Turkey’s relations with the Kurds in northern Iraq, and the State of Israel which sees Turkey as its only Muslim ‘ally’ (although in my view it’s a pretty poor ally).

It’s also possible that the ADL was influenced by an implied threat to the Turkish Jewish community.

Nevertheless, Foxman’s position is not supportable:

“You would never ever say that about the genocide in Darfur; you would never ever say that about the Holocaust,” said [Sharistan] Melkonian. “You need to stop genocide anywhere you can, and the only way to stop genocide in the future is to acknowledge that it happened.” — Boston Globe

It is contradictory for the ADL to oppose Holocaust denial vigorously, as it should, while refusing to take a position on another historically documented genocide.

And it doesn’t set a good precedent, either, in a practical sense. Today, pseudo-historical revisionism is being used by Israel’s enemies to claim that Jews dispossessed Palestinian Arabs unfairly from their lands, that Israel engineered the war in 1967 for expansionist motives, etc.

The ADL is wrong about this issue and should change its position.

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