It’s hard to read this and not think in personal terms:
Hizbullah would likely shoot between 400 and 600 missiles a day into Israel during a future war, a senior Mossad official told a congressional delegation to Israel in 2009, according to a US diplomatic cable published on Sunday.
The cable from November 2009 summed up meetings a delegation led by Ike Skelton (D-Missouri) held with top officials from the Mossad, the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) and the IDF. It was first published on Sunday by Norway’s Aftenposten newspaper, which received it from WikiLeaks.
According to the Mossad official, 100 of the missiles will hit Tel Aviv.
Hizbullah, the delegation was told, has 40,000 missiles as well as a number of Iranian-made Ababil unmanned aerial vehicles that have a range of 150 km. and can be loaded with explosives and sent to bomb strategic targets in Israel. — Jerusalem Post
100 missiles will hit Tel Aviv.
This is the fruit of Western appeasement, of sophisticated Europeans and Americans turning a blind eye to murderous barbarians. This is the fruit of the process that happens at the UN, the snotty British academics, my ignorant neighbors in Peace Fresno, the churches that call for BDS, and the stupid ‘Left’ that’s taken over the perennial job of hating Jews from its previous occupants.
This is what it finally comes down to, attempted murder and even genocide. This is what you are calling for, my friends at KPFA and NPR, Roger Cohen and the New York Times, Richard Silverman and Max Blumenthal, the Muslim students at UC Irvine. You said you were concerned about peace and human rights, but what you actually did was lay the foundation for what you purport to hate — war.
The Jews have the means to defend themselves, and today they are very well prepared. Once the missiles start falling on Tel Aviv, Mr. Obama’s telephone calls to Jerusalem will go unanswered until the threat is wiped away. Israel is cornered with no place to go. It will fight with all of its considerable means.
Israel’s enemies have always underestimated her, and this time it won’t be different except for the scale. It’s a pity that it had to come to this, that instead of restraining the real war-mongers like Iran and Syria, you chose to coddle them. Instead of crushing the anti-civilization forces of Hamas and Hizballah, you legitimized them.
Some of you laid flowers on Yasser Arafat’s grave, and before that you allowed him to speak at the UN, just as you welcomed Ahmadinejad, who aspires to Hitler’s mantle. It made you feel very multiculturally correct to ignore the fact that these ‘leaders’ were in fact monsters. Monsters who have given birth to the coming war.
Now not only are some innocent Israelis going to die unnecessarily and violently, so are thousands of Arabs and Iranians in places like Gaza and Lebanon, and maybe Syria, and maybe Iran. This is what war is. This is what you worked for. Congratulations on a job well done.
This is a powerful polemical piece. If I have one question and it is a very big one it has to do with our ability to knock them out. We cannot do this by conventional air- power alone. And I believe it would be self- defeating politically to use any non- conventional weapon. Therefore we have to go in and take the ground. This is problematic in Lebanon and to a lesser degree in Gaza. And do we really have the means to go into Syria and do this, not to mention Tehran?
I share your contempt for the stooges and evildoers who have brought about the situation. But I am not sure that we can achieve the decisive military victory you seem to believe we can.
My own feeling and I admit I tend to be less than an optimist is that any War will worsen our situation. The costs in lives and casualties and civilian infrastructure will be great. The damage that we do to the other side does not in any way compensate for this. As you know l whatever happens the other side will claim victory and have 170 U.N. votes supporting them in this.
I don’t have access to the necessary intelligence, or even the time/resources to do a detailed open-source military analysis.
I am 49 years old, a veteran of the U.S. Army infantry, a holder of a BA in Russian and East European Studies and an MA in International Relations with a specialization in Security Affairs, and as such, a student of history in general and military history in particular. Of course, I am a close watcher of the situation Israel faces, but from the distant vantage point of the U.S.
However all of the above qualifies my judgement, my two cents on this are as follows:
It sounds simplistic, but it comes down most of all to national will and leadership on Israel’s part, both civilian and military, and also, logistics.
Israel is going to have to be mobilized and prepared to fight a very short, violent war, under the assumption of no resupply from the U.S.
Yes, I agree that they are going to have to go into Lebanon and Gaza with ground forces. There is also probably going to be fighting with the U.S. trained/equipped “Dayton’s Army” in J&S.
The aim of the Lebanon and Gazan operations, as well as those in J&S, must be the complete elimination of Hezbollah, and the PA, to include it’s constituent parts of Hamas and Fatah.
If this means shooting their way into the hospital in Gaza where Hamas has it’s command post, so be it. If this means chasing Hezbollah all the way to Beirut, or even Damascus, so be it.
Because the war must succeed quickly before the effects of the assumed arms embargo are felt, a bit less care is going to have to be taken with respect to civilian casualties. Israel will have to clamp down as best they can on the usual hostile media presence.
Above all, what must define this war, and distinguish it from previous Israeli military efforts of this nature, is the absolute determination to destroy the relevant opposing forces organizations and their leaders. No escape a la 1982 to Tunisia this time. No matter what Obama says or threatens, or the UN for that matter, the enemy must be knocked down in such a way that they can’t get back up again, period.
I don’t know if Israeli leaders have the will to “go all the way” as I recommend above. Even if they do, I don’t know – one way or the other – if they’ll have the military resources to “complete the mission” before they are stopped by an arms embargo. These are the two big variables.
Israel’s supporters abroad will also have to be organized and mobilized. The torrent of media vitriol in the wake of the Gaza flotilla incident will seem like a Boy Scout picnic compared to the media deluge they will face this time. We will need to fight back as best we can.
Anyway, if there are enough bullets, spare parts, and fuel on hand to suport the execution of the above competently and resolutely, when the dust settles, I expect Israel to prevail.
If it happens that Israel’s military does not have the logistical wherewithal to sustain this operation independently, i.e., if a U.S. embargo would in fact stop them before the mission could be fully accomplished, then Israel has two alternatives:
1) Try to manage the situation as well as possible so as to avoid an all-out shooting war until Obama’s replacement takes office (assuming that is not Ron Paul, who would be even worse, if that can be imagined).
2) If the enemy attacks anyway, leaving Israel no choice – and they might very well do this, figuring that they’d have Israel “on the ropes” politically with Obama in office in a way they’re neve likely to enjoy again – then Israel may have to use WMDs. Again, if that is the way it is, so be it. If Israel has the means to win, ALL necessary means should be used to win. Failure is not an option, period.
Hopefully, Israeli leaders won’t lose their nerve in the face of international pressure, after they partially but not conclusively bludgeon their enemies, as things have played out in the past. Enough is enough.
Robman, I would take your analysis as spot on, but I would suggest a completely different course of action. Either before, or as soon as the missiles start flying from Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, etc – depending upon the intel available – Mass evacuate the borders in Israel and launch as many neutron weapon as necessary to rid us of the problem. If this is not practical in Gaza, we can cut that place into pieces very quickly.
As far as the rest of the world goes, their entire existence has not been under continual threat since WW2. They have had ample time to fix the underlying issues through the UN and have failed miserably. I can live with not being a part of the “brotherhood of nations” (what a sick joke that one is) and am prepared to harvest olives and cucumbers and live a very reduced lifestyle – it would probably be better to tell you the truth! I believe we Jews would pull together better than Cubans or N. Koreans and they are able to make it.
Besides the strategic considerations – Hashem didn’t gather us back into our promised land for us to slowly commit suicide to the rest of the nations. We have to stand up and do the right thing and the right thing will happen.