Israel plans to nuke Iran? Not exactly.

By Vic Rosenthal

Yesterday I spoke about the recent war in Lebanon at a local men’s club. The first question I was asked is, “There are reports all over the news that Israel is planning to nuke Iran. Is it true?”

The answer I gave is that although I am not in the loop, of course the Israeli air force is thinking about how to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. It’s even possible that they have considered using tactical nuclear weapons for this job.

The job of military planners is to prepare for every eventuality, and the facts are that a) Ahmadinijad has threatened Israel with nuclear attack several times, b) diplomatic efforts to prevent Iran from building nuclear bombs may fail, and c) nobody but Israel will be prepared to risk anything for Israel’s sake. If the commanders of the Israeli air force were not thinking about this, they would be very foolish.

But from a rational point of view, an attack on Iran would carry many disadvantages and Israel would only choose it if there were absolutely no other alternative. My guess is that we are very far from this point.

So it is highly misleading to say that “Israel plans to attack Iran”.

The source of the rumor is interesting, an article in the London Sunday Times by one Uzi Mahnaimi. He is less than a reliable source.

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One Response to “Israel plans to nuke Iran? Not exactly.”

  1. Shalom Freedman says:

    I believe your analysis here is correct. The first question one must ask when such stories is, ‘Whose interest is served by its publication?’
    I do not believe such a story serves Israel’s interest vis-a-vis Iran directly. Threats will not deter Iran.
    I also believe the retaliatory capacity of Iran/Syria/Hizbollah with their missles is significant. And it does seem that Iran is somewhat delayed in its program, though I know nothing for certain about this.
    Perhaps the one good thing the message gives is that it reminds the players in the Middle East that Israel still has the long- arm, and even after the Lebanon War is capable of reaching anyone who threatens us.