Someone recently asked me why I write so much about the Palestinian Arabs rather than Iran, which is really a much greater threat to Israel. One reason is that everyone knows how serious the Iranian threat is, while there continue to be be people who think that the ‘peace process’ is worth pursuing. So I write articles like yesterday’s piece about Palestinian Arab attitudes, or my recent post arguing (for the nth time) that the real issue is recognition of the Jewish state, not borders or occupation.
Another reason is that the Palestinian Arabs, combined with the increasingly radicalized Arab citizens of Israel, really are a threat to the existence of the Jewish state. Perhaps not so much a military threat — at least, by themselves — but as a wedge issue for the anti-Zionist forces throughout the world. Think of the massive resources poured into anti-Israel NGOs by the European Union. They could almost bail out the Greeks if they would only leave Israel alone!
The Palestinian Arabs also have hurt Israel greatly over the years by waging low-intensity war — several thousand Israeli Jews have been murdered by Palestinian terrorists since 1993, and many more seriously injured. It’s impossible to ignore the human, economic and psychic damage in the tiny Jewish population for which they are responsible.
If they do succeed in establishing a sovereign state in the territories, then it is likely to become another base for Iranian proxy forces, like Lebanon and Gaza.
And finally, when the inevitable war with Iran’s proxies in Lebanon and Syria plays out, we can expect that they will at least ramp up terrorism and perhaps open another front.
With respect to the Iranian threat, we probably know what’s coming, although of course we don’t know what the ultimate outcome will be. Former Mossad head Meir Dagan, as well as ex-CIA officer Robert Baer — both individuals who must be taken seriously — seem to believe that the present Israeli government is moving toward an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Even if this is not true, there is no doubt that Iran already has or shortly will have the ability to produce a deliverable weapon. Once this happens, I think a preemptive attack will be inevitable.
Finally, it’s unlikely that Israel can allow the massive conventional and chemical/biological threat from its northern border to remain.
It may be that all of these issues will be resolved at the same time.