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What did Britain do to get the hostages back?

Speaking outside Downing Street, [PM Tony Blair] told reporters that the return of the personnel did not involve any “deal” or “negotiation”.

He expressed his belief that a combination of maintaining a “calm and firm” stance, which maintained bilateral communication while mobilising international opinion in Europe and at the UN, ensured the safe return of the sailors to Britain. — In the News (UK)

I think it’s safe to say that Mr. Blair was speaking in a somewhat technical sense. The capture of the 15 British personnel was obviously planned in advance, and not a response to an incursion (which did not happen), as the Iranians said. Therefore the operation was intended to achieve some goal, other than amusing Ahmadinijad. It’s reasonable to assume that something like negotiation occurred, and the quick release of the hostages implies that there was a quid pro quo.

So what do we think it was? The US is still holding five Iranians captured in Iraq; one possibility is that they will be released shortly. On Tuesday an unidentified Iraqi group released an Iranian diplomat, Jalal Sharafi (the Iranians claimed that the CIA was behind his kidnapping). This may have been the down payment. On Wednesday the US military announced that the International Red Cross had made a visit to the five in US custody.

One other, somewhat disturbing theory is that concessions were made regarding Iran’s nuclear program:

A senior E.U. official has told the London daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat that a short time before Iran’s release of the 15 British servicemen, E.U. foreign policy chief Javier Solana spoke by phone with Iranian National Security Council chairman Ali Larijani on the possibility of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. — Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, London, April 6, 2007 — MEMRI

Technorati Tags: Blair, British sailors, Sharafi

The phenomenon of honor killings among Arabs is well-known. But a recent story about an Israeli Arab family in Ramle (central Israel) stands out:

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Abu Mazen speaks:

Abducted Israel Defense Forces soldier Gilad Shalit will be released soon, Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas said in a television interview on Friday.

“We are undertaking efforts to free Shalit and these efforts will soon come to fruition,” Abbas told France 24 television of Corporal Gilad Shalit, who was seized last June in a cross-border raid from Gaza into southern Israel. “We are optimistic.” — Ha’aretz

Well, we are not so optimistic, because we know that the decision to release Shalit is in the hands of Hamas, and possibly even Syrian or Iranian elements, and not those of Abbas. Mahmoud Abbas is an abstract construction which exists only to give the world someone acceptable to talk to who is part of the Palestinian government. It doesn’t even matter who the real Mahmoud Abbas is or what he thinks.

Shalit will go home when Israel capitulates and agrees to release a ridiculous number of murderers as ransom, or when Israeli security forces find him…may this day come soon.

Technorati Tags: Israel, Abbas, Shalit

Put yourself in their place:

In a chilling account of their capture, the men said they were conducting a routine search of a merchant vessel on March 23 just south of the Shatt al Arab waterway, one nearly identical to 66 similar boardings that had been carried out over the previous four weeks.

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