Archive for May, 2007

UN resloution 194 and the Palestinian refugees

Saturday, May 19th, 2007

The Arab League Peace Initiative says this about the Palestinian right of return:

II- Achievement of a just solution to the Palestinian refugee problem to be agreed upon in accordance with U.N. General Assembly Resolution 194.

And what does UN resolution 194 say about refugees?

11. Resolves that the refugees wishing to return to their homes and live at peace with their neighbours should be permitted to do so at the earliest practicable date, and that compensation should be paid for the property of those choosing not to return and for loss of or damage to property which, under principles of international law or in equity, should be made good by the Governments or authorities responsible…

Maurice Ostroff, in his piece Factoids and the Palestinian Right of Return, has made some very good points about this:

…since resolution 194 specifically applies only to refugees who wish “to live at peace with their neighbors”, it does not apply to the Palestinians since both Hamas and PLO charters emphatically reject peace with Israel. [both Hamas and PLO documents can be found at Know Your Enemy — ed.]

The official Palestinian Media Center web site confirms that promised changes to the PLO Charter have not been made. Article 9 of the PLO covenant still plainly declares that armed struggle is not merely tactical, it is the overall strategy. Article 19 rejects the 1947 UN partition, implicitly rejecting the Quartet’s proposed two-state solution. Moreover it advocates destruction of the entire Jewish state. Article 20 deems the Balfour Declaration and the British Mandate null and void.

Further, Ostroff points out that the resolution mentions only actual refugees, not their descendents. And full implementation of this resolution would also require compensation to the hundreds of thousands of Jewish refugees forced to flee Arab states.

So maybe an agreement based on resolution 194 would not be so bad after all.

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Life after the PA

Friday, May 18th, 2007

It’s been suggested that the worst thing for Israel would be a complete collapse of the Palestinian Authority (PA), leaving Israel responsible for millions of Palestinians in the territories and with no one to talk to:

For the spiraling anarchy inside Gaza is not something Israel can watch from outside. A collapse of the PA as a government, something that the events of the last few days have shown is a real possibility, would have far-reaching strategic ramifications for Israel and could fundamentally change the two-state concept that has underpinned Israeli policy since 1993 and the Oslo Accords…

In a paper Reut published last November, [Gidi] Grinstein wrote that the aim of this strategy “is to establish one Palestinian/Arab/Islamic state in place of Israel through actions that will bring about Israel’s internal collapse as a state.”

According to this strategy, “the occupation accelerates Israel’s implosion and therefore should be sustained. Either way, the Hamas government in and of itself serves the ‘Strategy of Implosion’ because it creates a political deadlock, deepens the Palestinian crisis of representation, and erodes the PA’s capacity to govern.”

Grinstein, who was an adviser to Ehud Barak when Barak served as prime minister, said that the collapse of the PA – a situation of “non-governance there” – was bad for Israel. “We will have no one to talk to, and too many people to shoot at,” he said.

This analysis depends, of course, on the assumption that while there is a functional PA, there is someone to talk to whose ultimate goal is a peaceful two-state settlement.

That is by no means certain. The late, lamented Fatah organization was a creature of Israel’s greatest enemy since Amalek, Yasser Arafat. While differing from Hamas in strategy — prepared to use diplomacy as well as force — Fatah, in the opinion of many and in the words of its charter, sought the same goal: the replacement of the Jewish state with one ruled by Arabs.

If this is correct, then the destruction of Fatah is not particularly good or bad for Israel. If the “peace process” is to turn out, at the end of the day, to have been a mirage with peace always shimmering in the desert beyond reach, better to know that now.

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The outlines of the future, for Sderot and Israel

Thursday, May 17th, 2007

By Vic Rosenthal 

The IDF, while apparently not intending to invade Gaza in force, is ramping up activities to stop the barrage of Qassam missiles hitting Sderot, Ashkelon and environs. In the past few days, more than 85 rockets have fallen in the area near the Gaza strip. Israeli and Palestinian observers suggest that Hamas wants to involve Israel to distract attention from the horrific fighting between it and Fatah, so the plan seems to be to strike hard at those directly involved in firing rockets and their commanders without being drawn into a large-scale invasion. We’ll see if they can walk this tightrope successfully.

Meanwhile, the world press has not been paying much attention to the rocket barrage. News in the US centers on Iraq, while in Europe the Palestinian civil war takes precedence. When a single car bombing in Iraq can kill sixty, the ten Qassam fatalities over the past few years aren’t big news; and neither are the hundreds of wounded and shock victims, although the fear that the rockets have generated is depopulating the city of Sderot. But the media are beginning to pay attention to Israeli military responses, as always, so we will see more coverage in the near future.

The fact is, as Sderot mayor Eli Moyal has complained, “no [other] country in the world” would allow an enemy to bombard a city for years with impunity. Imagine the disproportionate response from the United States if Mexicans were bombarding El Paso!

But as Ami Isseroff has pointed out (see my previous post), the real impact on Israel from Gaza will probably come from the fact that the Islamist Hamas forces are crushing the US-supported Fatah militia, despite the huge numerical and logistical superiority of the latter. Isseroff compares Fatah to the ARVN (Army of the Republic of Vietnam), and today’s Iraqi army. No more need be said, from a military point of view.

So at some point in the near future, Israel will be facing a Palestinian entity entirely controlled by the Islamic Hamas, which has refused to even pretend to accept the Quartet principles of recognizing Israel, renouncing violence, and accepting prior agreements between Israel and the Palestinians. Then, as Isseroff implies, the question will simply be how long it will take before most of the world supports Hamas as the ‘legitimate’ Palestinian government. Norway and Switzerland already do.

Once this happens, the chances for any kind of peaceful solution of the Israeli-Arab conflict that leaves Israel viable, either a unilateral Israeli one or a negotiated settlement that includes the Palestinians, approaches zero. Like Sderot, all Israel will face a future of unrelieved struggle.

In the next few weeks, perhaps sooner, we will see the outlines of the future emerge, both for Sderot and for the Israeli-Palestinian relationship.

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National Palestinian, er, Public Radio

Wednesday, May 16th, 2007

On the 6 PM (Pacific time) newscast today, here is how NPR described events in Gaza:

Despite promises to observe a cease-fire, fighting broke out today between Palestinian factions in the Gaza strip. Palestinian security officials say the fighting killed at least 16 people. They said fighters from the ruling Hamas movement shot and killed 6 guards belonging to the rival Fatah party. Hamas gunmen also mistakenly killed 5 of their own fighters in an apparent friendly fire incident. Israel fired missiles at Hamas positions in Gaza, saying the attack was in response to Hamas rockets fired into Israeli territory. — NPR (transcribed from streaming audio, no link available)

Ignoring errors (fighting didn’t ‘break out’ today, it’s been underway for some time), was NPR unaware that about 50 Palestinian rockets were fired into Sderot in the last 24 hours, causing numerous injuries and resulting in the evacuation of hundreds of residents? Shouldn’t they have mentioned this?

The report gives the impression that Israel just attacked for the hell of it, ‘saying’ that it was in response to Hamas’ rockets. Of course I understand that the conscientious journalists of NPR don’t really know the motivation of the Israelis, so they have to depend on what they say — but honestly NPR, is it a mystery that Israel would want to stop the Hamas rocket barrage?

I’ve discussed NPR’s subtle and not-so-subtle pro-Palestinian bias before. The next time your local Public Radio station asks for your donation, tell them ‘no’, and explain exactly why.

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I have seen people shot before my eyes

Wednesday, May 16th, 2007

There’s little to add to this shocking eyewitness account of civil war in Gaza:

With battles raging outside my building and my windows blown out by bullets, I sit in a dark hallway outside my apartment with my wife and baby. It’s dangerous inside and outside.

Today I have seen people shot before my eyes, I heard the screams of terrified women and children in a burning building, and I argued with gunmen who wanted to take over my home.

I have seen a lot in my years as a journalist in Gaza, but this is the worst it’s been.

Much of the fighting is taking place right here in my neighborhood. I went outside a few times to report, just around the house. I saw a building on fire after Hamas gunmen attacked, and I heard the screams of people who could not get out because of the gun battles.

CONTINUE