Archive for September, 2007

Irresponsible threats are bad for Iran

Monday, September 17th, 2007

Iranian Shihab-3 missileIn a really surprising display of irresponsibility, the Iranian regime has threatened Israel with a massive missile attack:

Six hundred Iranian Shihab-3 missiles are pointed at targets throughout Israel, and will be launched if either Iran or Syria are attacked, an Iranian website affiliated with the regime reported on Monday.

“Iran will shoot at Israel 600 missiles if it is attacked,” the Iranian news website, Assar Iran, reported. “600 missiles will only be the first reaction.”

According to the report, dozens of locations throughout Iraq, which are being used by the US Army, have also been targeted. — Jerusalem Post

The Shihab-3 missile, a liquid-fueled IRBM based on the North Korean “Nodong”, can easily reach any point in Israel and can carry a nuclear warhead. Even without this it can be quite destructive, with some versions able to carry a one ton payload.

But the threat is less significant than one might imagine.

The missile must be fueled before firing, which makes it much more vulnerable to being destroyed on the ground, unlike the solid-fueled Katyusha. It can also — unlike the flat-trajectory Katyushas and Qassams — be targeted by anti-missile systems like the Arrow and Patriot. And it could not be a surprise attack.

There is one overriding reason, however, that such a missile attack on Israel will not occur, and that is Israel’s strategic deterrent. A strike of this kind, although there would be many casualties, would not even come close to achieving Ahmadinejad’s goal of wiping Israel off the map, but would trigger a counterstrike — maybe even before the Iranian missiles lift off — that would certainly put an end to the Iranian economy, military and regime. And there would not be a ‘second reaction’.

So, assuming that the Iranians know this, what’s the point of their threat? Simply this: to send a message to the US and Israel that an attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities would be very expensive. Possibly they will decide, think the Iranians, that it’s not worth it.

But — and this is why I said that the threat was irresponsible — the message that will be received is the following: an attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities must be combined with a major strike against overall Iranian military capabilities, particularly the missile forces. It doesn’t pay to slap a dangerous enemy and hope that he won’t respond; you have to knock him out.

If Israel and/or the US believe that there is no alternative to military action to stop the Iranian nuclear program, then there is also no alternative to massive military action.

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Al-Dura hoax soon to be exploded

Sunday, September 16th, 2007

The Jerusalem Post is reporting that the IDF has demanded a copy of the full 27-minute tape of the Mohammed al-Dura ‘shooting’ from the France 2 TV network. The network originally released only 55 seconds of the tape, which appeared to show the boy being shot, and has refused to let anyone see the rest.

Although Israel issued an apology immediately after the incident, an IDF inquiry later showed that it was impossible for al-Dura to have been shot by Israeli soldiers, based on the location of the soldiers, the angles, etc.

Other investigations confirmed this and even produced evidence that Palestinians were staging incidents of the IDF firing at civilians on the day that al-Dura was supposed to have been shot.

Nevertheless, world opinion, always ready to view Israel and the IDF as bloody murderers, remained convinced that Israel had deliberately and sadistically killed a young boy and wounded his father, for no legitimate purpose. The event was used to ‘justify’ various acts of terrorism committed against Israelis, including the lynching of two reserve soldiers who lost their way in Ramallah.

Phillippe KarsentyA French media critic, Philippe Karsenty, claimed that the presentation was a hoax perpetrated by France 2 and its Jerusalem Bureau Chief Charles Enderlin. Enderlin charged Karsenty with defamation, and in a trial reminiscent of the Dreyfus case, Karsenty lost (he is presently appealing):

The trial court, finding in favor of Enderlin, disregarded the evidence Karsenty presented. Instead, the judge relied on a two-year old letter from former French President, Jacques Chirac, complementing Enderlin on his journalistic skills. The judge further noted that neither the Israeli government nor the organized French Jewish community had elected to come forward in support of Karsenty’s view. Nevertheless, the evidence in favor of Karsenty is substantive and overwhelming. Moreover, the fact that the Al Dura incident is a hoax is obvious to a critical eye merely on the basis of the footage that has so far become available. — Joanna Chandler, The Al Durah Hoax

The al-Dura affair is just one of an endless series of lies promulgated by the Palestinians and others against Israel: the Jenin ‘Massacre’ which didn’t happen, the “1000 civilian deaths” in the second Lebanon war, the Red Cross Ambulance story, the Qana ‘massacre’ of already-dead people, etc.

However, the consequences of this particular story were so horrific that the perpetrators must be held to account. If it becomes clear that France 2 and Enderlin cooperated with the Palestinians in this — and I think it will, if the footage is released — then they are the ones guilty of murder.

Update [20 Sept 1800 PDT]: A French judge has ordered the full footage shown to the court. Richard Landes, one of the few who has seen it, has written numerous articles on the subject at The Augean Stables.

Update [3 Oct 0816 PDT] Israel has officially denied responsibility for the al-Dura shooting (if it occurred). See Honest Reporting’s account here.

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Short takes: Obama and Israel, Syria raid, home front, Hanson

Sunday, September 16th, 2007

Zbigniew BrzezinskiBarack Obama has appointed Zbigniew Brzezinski as his advisor on foreign affairs:

Concerns have been raised among Israel supporters in the US following the appointment of a controversial veteran political advisor by Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.

Last week, Obama introduced Zbigniew Brzezinski as “one of our most outstanding thinkers” during a policy speech in Iowa on the Iraq war.

Brzezinski, aged 79, has been selected by Obama to advise him on foreign policy affairs. Previously, he served as a national security advisor to President Jimmy Carter.

One of the most troubling aspects of Brzezinski’s appointment for allies of Israel is his defense of the book, ‘The Israel Lobby,’ authored by academics Stephen Walt and John Mearsheimer. — YNet

Brzezinski has always been far from a friend of Israel (just Google ‘Brzezinski Israel’ for citations). Either Obama knows this and shares his point of view, or he doesn’t know it. Either way, it’s bad.

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The target of the raid on Syria was probably a nuclear installation. Although none of the reports is completely authoritative and we don’t know exactly what was hit, the condemnation issued by North Korea — which generally doesn’t concern itself with events in the region — is suggestive. Here’s some speculation, to be taken with a large grain of salt.

The raid itself, along with the visible improvements in IDF preparedness, has increased Israel’s deterrent power in the region. See the comments of Maj.-Gen. Amos Yadlin, head of Military Intelligence here. I’ve always argued that peace is best sought through strength, not concessions.

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It’s about time. The government of Israel is (we hope) taking seriously the problem of defending the home front and protecting its citizens:

The government decided Sunday to form a new governmental branch – the National Emergency Administration – to be put in charge of coordinating the various government, security, emergency and civil services in times of national crisis.

Formed as one of the lessons learnt from the Second Lebanon War, the administration would be designed to provide the home front with an immediate response in cases of war, mass emergencies or natural disasters. — YNet

It’s not enough to have superior offensive capabilities if the civilian population is exposed. This seems to be an initiative of Ehud Barak, the new Defense Minister, who appointed one-time IDF Chief of Staff Matan Vilna’i as a Deputy Minister and put him in charge of home front defense.

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Victor Davis Hanson’s column in today’s Fresno Bee:

A new virulent strain of the old anti-Semitism is spreading worldwide. This hate — of a magnitude not seen in more than 70 years — is not just espoused by Iran’s loony president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, or radical jihadists.

The latest anti-Semitism is mouthed by world leaders and sophisticated politicians and academics. Their loathing often masquerades as “anti-Zionism” or “legitimate” criticism of Israel.

But the venom exclusively reserved for the Jewish state betrays their existential hatred.

Read the complete article here

You can also read why I think some forms of anti-Zionism are actually manifestations of antisemitism here.

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Israeli Arab youth learn Palestinian nationalism

Saturday, September 15th, 2007

Baladna (بلدنا), which means “our land”, is an organization for Israeli Arab youth which was formed “in and around the cataclysmic events of October 2000”, the Israeli-Arab uprising that coincided with the start of the second intifada, in which 13 Arabs were killed.

Baladna’s English website describes the group as follows:

Baladna aspires to provide the ideas, resources, and practical tools for youth activism in the Arab community in Israel, at the same time offering Arab youth a non-partisan, comfortable forum in which to nurture individual and collective identity. We work to strengthen and enable Arab youth’s understanding and application of the principles of democracy and gender equality, pluralism and tolerance, in conjunction with discussion and debate concerning the history, grievances and culture of Palestinians in Israel, the Occupied Territories, and the Diaspora. — Baladna, About Us

Although this sounds innocuous enough, the website content promotes the view that the cause of all of the problems of Israeli Arabs is the establishment of the State of Israel and its discriminatory policies; and its political content is Palestinian nationalist in tone. And this is the English version.

Their latest newsletter is all about Nakba (‘catastrophe’, i.e., the events of 1948) consciousness, and describes various activities designed to strengthen what I can only call nationalist or separatist attitudes among young Israeli Arabs.

And it seems to me that Baladna, rather than trying to bring Jewish and Arab Israelis together, is taking actions designed to increase the alienation:

Baladna – the Association for Arab Youth – is expected to launch a campaign Friday calling on young Arab-Israelis to boycott the national service, which it referred to as “an offshoot of the IDF”…

As part of the campaign, a conference calling on young Arab-Israelis to boycott the program will be held in cooperation with the Higher Arab Monitoring Committee of Israeli Arabs.

In addition, prominent Arab filmmakers, actors and musicians will take part in a special event to promote the campaign.

According to Baladna, “a state that doesn’t recognize the national and collective existence of the Arab public cannot claim that it knows what this public’s true needs are, and therefore cannot determine how young Arabs can best serve Arab society”. — YNet [my emphasis]

The “national and collective existence of the Arab public” means the Arab nation that exists, under protest, within Israel, and which rejects the Jewish character, symbols, and majority rule that characterize the state. This has now become the position of the intellectual and political elites in the Israeli Arab community.

The national service program is intended as an alternative to army service for ultra-orthodox Jews and Israeli Arabs (who are exempt from military service), who could choose to work on various projects in their own communities. They would receive the same pay and benefits as IDF soldiers. But since joining such a program would constitute support for the state and might even lead to better understanding between Jews and Arabs, then it’s not surprising that the Israeli Arab leadership and Baladna are opposed to it.

Of course, Baladna is supported by the New Israel Fund and other left-wing agencies and NGOs.

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Is the cart before the horse here?

Friday, September 14th, 2007

Doudou Diene, UN Special Rapporteur on RacismIs Islamophobia a serious threat to world peace? Here’s one who thinks so:

A UN expert on racism on Friday branded the defamation of religions – in particular critical portrayals of Islam in the West – a threat to world peace.

“Islamophobia today is the most serious form of religious defamation,” Doudou Diene told the UN Human Rights Council, which is currently holding a three-week session in Geneva.

Diene cited a caricature of the Muslim Prophet Muhammad in a Swedish newspaper, a protest by far-right groups in Belgium Tuesday against the “Islamization of Europe,” and campaigns against the construction of mosques in Germany and Switzerland as evidence of an “ever increasing trend” toward anti-Islamic actions in Europe.

“We see the initiatives and activities of many groups and organizations which are working hard to bring about a war of civilizations,” he said, adding that right-wing groups were trying to equate Islam with violence and terrorism. — Jerusalem Post

It’s interesting that he sees Islamophobia as dangerous to world peace. All forms of religious prejudice are pernicious, of course, but they are not usually characterized as threats to world peace.

There is no doubt that the massive terrorist attacks in the West in this century — 9/11, the bombings in Madrid and London, etc. — were threats to world peace, and were indeed calculated to bring about a war of civilizations. And they were carried out in the name of Islam, no matter how marginal the conception of Islam held by the terrorists is.

And surveys have shown that in some places (e.g., the UK) the idea that terrorism in ‘defense’ of Islam is justified, while still a minority opinion, is not marginal at all — and it doesn’t take much to convince some people that Islam is under attack.

So what we have is this:

  • Some Muslims have committed horrendous terrorist attacks against the West in the name of Islam.
  • A significant minority of Muslims supports them.
  • As a result, there has been a reaction against Islam in general (although only rarely a violent one), and the nativist right wing in Europe is taking advantage of it.

It seems strange to me that Dr. Diene sees this last as the threat to peace. It seems to me that the bombs and hijacked aircraft of the terrorists have already broken the peace. But this is the perspective of the UN.

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