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1. Arming the terrorists

From YNet:

[Israeli] Internal Security Minister Avi Dichter warned Wednesday that over the past three months Hamas has equipped itself with 200 tons of explosives, most of which were obtained from the Palestinian Authority [PA]…

“I am mentioning this issue of the weapon transfers in Gaza, sometimes from one street to another, so that we can understand the risks we are taking in the Judea and Samaria, unless we demand that they enforce the law.”

The close connections between PA ‘security’ forces and Hamas (sometimes they are the same people) means that arms and equipment that the US and Israel supply to the PA to ‘fight terrorists’ often fall directly into the hands of those terrorists. Dichter says that he wants the PA to arrest, try and jail those taking part in terrorist activities:

“The ease in which Hamas took over Gaza worries me. I demand that the Palestinian Authority enforce the law through police and security organizations, prosecution bodies, courts and jails for convicted people.”

I am sure that he does not believe that this is possible. The implication must be that he does not believe in the strategy of building up a countervailing Palestinian force in Fatah.

2. What do Palestinians want?

Many Palestinians who do not align themselves with Hamas nevertheless oppose the idea of a two-state solution, such as the one that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas claims to want. I imagine that they are thinking as follows:

Israel has been defeated by Hezbollah, and they are unable to do anything about Hamas’ rockets in the south. There will certainly be more fighting in the North and the South, and the outcome will be the same. Ultimately — possibly with outside help from Syria and Iran — Israel will begin to fall apart, and we will get the whole thing. Abbas is an American puppet and his phony Palestinian state will just slow the process down.

What should Israel do in this situation? I suggest that the most important thing is to restore its power of deterrence against Hezbollah and Syria, as well as find a way to stop the death by a thousand cuts being inflicted by Hamas.

This probably means that there will be more war before there is peace. But one can’t negotiate from weakness.

3. Rumors are swirling…

Stories being passed around in Israel say that what was hit in Syria was much more than a partially-built nuclear reactor, that American forces were involved in the strike, and more. Much of it is not believable, but ask yourself this: why would Israel risk attacking a reactor that was, as the semi-official disinformation suggests, far from becoming active? I suspect that some day we will find out exactly what used to be where that hole in the desert is today.

4. There’s already a war in Gaza

Yesterday a Golani brigade soldier, Sgt. Ben Kubany (20) of Hadera, was killed in an encounter between the IDF and Hamas near Khan Younis.

“What we are doing in Gaza is fighting for the security fence,” a military source said Wednesday morning. “Terrorist organizations are trying to harm our control of the fence so that they can use the area to launch attacks within Israel. Our job is to prevent them from reaching this goal, and this is done through daily operations, which are complex, and which also carry an element of risk”…

Recently, the IDF said terrorist organizations, especially Hamas, have gained strength, as seen by pinpoint terrorist activities and confrontations which take place throughout IDF operations. The IDF added that terror cells are visibly more organized, improved, and possess a wider range of weapons. One senior officer described the terrorist cells as an organized army.– YNet

If (when) Israel mounts a large incursion into Gaza in order to stop the war of attrition that is being waged against her, the friends of Hamas will claim that it’s “unprovoked aggression against a civilian population”. Just watch.

Technorati Tags: Israel, Dichter, Gaza, Hamas, Palestinians, IDF, Kubany

Representatives of Israel’s Left and Right have found something to agree about: the Annapolis conference is not a good idea:

The unanimous opinion was voiced by four leading MKs currently visiting Washington for a series of high-ranking meetings prior to the conference. On Tuesday the group met with US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nick Burns and Deputy National Security Advisor Jim Jeffrey.

Following the meeting with Jeffrey, [left-wing] MK Yossi Beilin (Meretz) said that the Americans were “creating a situation wherein failure in Annapolis may lead to disaster. It would have been possible for bilateral talks between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to continue. If after seven years of no negotiations at all, this summit fails – it could truly bring about catastrophe.

Failure, Beilin said, would also spell out the end of Abbas’ rule and “give an unbelievable boost to Hamas’ strength.”

Of course, Beilin’s idea of ‘success’ would be for Israel to give up the store to the Palestinians. But I think that even he realizes that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is presently too weak to make any kind of agreement that would stick. Beilin would prefer to continue ‘bolstering’ Abbas until he is strong enough to control Hamas (as if any amount of bolstering could bring this about).

On the other hand, Likud MP Yuval Steinitz is more worried that the conference will ‘succeed’, opening the way to the establishment of a terrorist state on the West Bank as well as Gaza:

He warned against “signing an agreement with Abbas on Judea and Samaria while ignoring everything that has happened in Gaza over the last two years – we gave up everything and got an Iranian-backed Palestinian army in return.”

Steinitz accused the US of “playing with fire when it comes to Jerusalem. It’s difficult enough as it is to control the city, there are constant attempts to turn the Temple Mount into ground zero for all religious wars. Israeli control over East Jerusalem is the only thing preventing a bloodbath and religious war that could ignite the entire Muslim world.

“If Annapolis fails it would be bad. If Annapolis succeeds we fear that once against Israel will give up everything and receive nothing in return.” — YNet [my emphasis]

Meanwhile, Condoleeza Rice is forging ahead, having met with the Egyptian Prime Minister and Foreign Minister today and apparently receiving grudging support.

It’s hard to see what can come out of this. Israel is unhappy (although PM Olmert puts on an appearance so as not to be called “anti-peace”), and wants only an agreement on ‘principles’. The Palestinian Authority (Abbas faction) has demanded that it include agreements on substantive issues like borders, refugees, and Jerusalem that are so far quite distant from anything Israel could possibly accept. And nobody thinks that Abbas can control even his own faction, so any committments he makes will be worth little.

One bright spot is that Hamas, Iran and Syria have all denounced the idea of a conference. So there must be something good in it.

My own gut feeling is that with the price of oil reaching $88/bbl. today, elements in the US government are pushing to finally fulfill the promises made by Henry Kissinger in the 1970’s that we would reverse the territorial results of the 1967 war.

Technorati Tags: Israel, Palestinians, Annapolis conference, Beilin, Steinitz, Rice

Our UN and the latter-day Barbary Pirates:

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – Libya, once a pariah of the West, took a giant stride back to global respectability when it was elected along with four other countries on Tuesday to a two-year term on the United Nations Security Council…

The United States, which had used its influence to foil previous Libyan attempts in 1995 and 2000 to win a coveted seat on the powerful council, took no similar action this year, diplomats from other countries said.

This is apparently a reward for finally releasing five Bulgarian nurses and a Palestinian doctor who were held captive since 1999, and tortured into ‘confessing’ that they had deliberately infected Libyan children with AIDS, despite the fact that this was clearly impossible. The nurses and doctor were tried and condemned to death, finally being ransomed in July of this year:

The release follows a deal under which the families of the infected children will reportedly receive compensation of about US$1 million each. The deal also calls for stronger economic and political ties between the European Union and Libya, as well as health aid to Libyan children infected with HIV. — Center for Nursing Advocacy, update on the Benghazi Six

Technorati Tags: UN, Libya, Benghazi Six

Barry Rubin (‘And what do we get?’) points out that most of the discussion about the coming negotiations (as always) centers on how much Israel will be forced to give to the Palestinians. But negotiations are a two-way street, and Israel must get something in return. Rubin suggests that it will be something like the following:

• The conflict would be ended. Over. Finished.
• Palestinian refugees would be resettled in Palestine.
• The PA-Fatah-PLO would energetically work to bring Arab states into the peace arrangement.
• Palestine would block terrorist attacks from its territory on Israel by force if needed and stop the systematic incitement of hatred, certainly on the official level, against Israel.
• No foreign troops would be permitted on Palestine’s territory.

With the exception of the refugee issue — which is really a statement that whatever happens to the descendants of the refugees, they will not go to Israel — all of these are hard to define and easy to revoke. Israel’s concessions, of course, are concrete and likely to be permanent.

But even this will be hard for the Palestinians to agree to, thanks to Hamas and the radical elements in Fatah. And if there is agreement, then these will be difficult or impossible for the weak, unrepresentative Abbas / Fayad branch of the Palestinian Authority (PA) to deliver.

Rubin thinks Israel should take part in the conference anyway:

Is it worth trying talks? Yes. Aside from showing the world Israel’s peaceful intentions there might be small successes. The level of conflict could be lowered, PA-Fatah preserved, international help obtained, Arab states brought into deeper engagement.

I can’t agree:

• Israel’s security has been damaged time and again in the name of “showing the world Israel’s peaceful” intentions. The world could not care less, it simply wants to see Israeli concessions.

• The level of conflict would be increased, not lowered, as the radical elements do their best to sabotage any agreement, no matter how worthless for Israel.

• PA-Fatah will lose status if there is an agreement that Israel can approve of, particularly about the refugee and Jerusalem issues.

• International ‘help’ will mean more weapons given to Abbas, which will fall into the hands of Hamas.

• And Arab states, in particular the holy grail of Saudi Arabia, have consistently used the Palestinian issue as a lever to push for the destruction of Israel. Let them worry about the Iranian situation, a real threat to them.

Today, the best peace conference would be no conference at all. But Israel really does desire peace, and the time will be right when the Palestinians and the Arab nations develop a realistic attitude — one which really and truly accepts the presence of a Jewish state in the Mideast.

Technorati Tags: Israel, Palestinians, Barry Rubin

Chris McClure writes about the Arabic translation of Hitler’s Mein Kampf, on sale in Cairo:

Originally published in Lebanon in 1963 according to the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), and reprinted in 1995, Mein Kampf, which is transliterated as Kifahi (and not jihadi as Victor Davis Hanson claims in the National Review Online), is reportedly also widely available in Jordan and the Palestinian Authority. The introduction claims that, “This national socialism did not die with the death of the man who proclaimed it: indeed its seeds grew under every star, and the promoters of radical nationalism (qawmiyya) take it up as a weapon with which to combat Third Internationalism and the principles of Karl Marx.”

Marx? Yes, McClure suggests that the writer was a Syrian or Iraqi Ba’athist; the Ba’athism of Saddam and the Assads draws its inspiration from Nazism.

But perhaps many will remember the days in which Arab rejectionism of Israel clothed itself in a Marxist costume. Nasser, Arafat, the Syrians, were all happy to talk about socialism when it meant arms and money from the Soviet Union.

Now everybody’s suddenly become an Islamist, thanks to petrodollars from Iran and Saudi Arabia. The formerly atheistic Arafat got religion (or pretended to) before his death, and even Bashar Assad, whose Ba’athism and Alawite faith should put him far from Islamism, champions the Islamist causes of Hamas (Sunni version) and Hezbollah (Shiite). Of course Assad has a different attitude to Syrian Islamists who would like to replace his regime, but that’s another story.

Can I be excused for thinking that these Arab leaders have only ever had one real ideology, that of maintaining their power, manipulating their subjects and the West, and hating Jews and Israel?

Technorati Tags: Arabs, Israel, Mein Kampf