Archive for January, 2009

Born too late

Saturday, January 3rd, 2009

Ban Ki-Moon and the UN, born too late:

[June 6, 1944]

Axis nations demanded that the council adopt a presidential statement calling for an immediate cease-fire following the allied launch of a ground offensive in Normandy earlier Tuesday, a view echoed by Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon…

Ban telephoned Prime Minister Churchill and President Roosevelt and said he was disappointed that the Allies launched a ground offensive and “alarmed that this escalation will inevitably increase the already heavy suffering” of German civilians, the UN spokesman’s office said in a statement.

“He called for an immediate end to the ground operation, and asked that the Allies do all possible to ensure the protection of civilians and that humanitarian assistance is able to reach those in need,” the statement said.

Ban reiterated his call for an immediate cease-fire and urged regional and international partners “to exert all possible influence to bring about an immediate end to the bloodshed and suffering,” the statement said. –  Jerusalem Post (with minor changes)

If Churchill had been like Olmert:

The Allies will allow Qatar to airlift humanitarian aid to Germany in the coming days, after Prime Minster Winston Churchill, US President Roosevelt and Soviet Foreign Minister V.M. Molotov agreed yesterday to a formal request from the Qatari government. Several aircraft from the Persian Gulf nation will land in Britain, and from there food and medicine will be transferred … to Germany.

Britain will act with an iron fist against the Nazis, but with silk gloves against [the] civilian population,” Churchill said yesterday. Sources in the Prime Minister’s Office said Britain would assist in any humanitarian effort as long as it was coordinated with British authorities ahead of time. — Ha’aretz

NGOs are born too late, too:

The U.S. section of Amnesty International sent an “urgent” letter Friday to Secretary of State Edward R. Stettinius Jr., calling on him to end what it called Washington’s “lopsided response” to the ongoing Allied air strikes on Dresden that have reportedly killed more than 400 Palestinians 25,000 Germans, including scores thousands of unarmed civilians. — IPSNews

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Live bloggers track Gaza ground war

Saturday, January 3rd, 2009

Don’t waste time with CNN. Live bloggers from Israel:

IsraellyCool

The Muqata

Ground attack in Gaza begins — what to expect

Saturday, January 3rd, 2009

You will read a lot of nonsense about this war. Here are some basic principles to help you understand the truth:

On the Ground in Gaza
By Barry Rubin
Tel Aviv, Israel [10:17 pm]

Israel didn’t want to attack the Gaza Strip from the ground or from the air. Hamas, which had long broken the ceasefire, canceled it altogether. Then it began large-scale attacks on Israel. This is a war of defense. And it is being conducted just 30 miles from here, Israel’s main city.

According to the just-released Israeli government statement on the offensive:

The objective of this stage is to destroy the terrorist infrastructure of the Hamas in the area of operation, while taking control of some of rocket launching area used by the Hamas, in order to greatly reduce the quantity of rockets fired at Israel and Israeli civilians.

The operation will…strike a direct and hard blow against the Hamas while increasing the deterrent strength of the Israel Defense Forces, in order to bring about an improved and more stable security situation for residents of southern Israel over the long term.

Even as the 2006 war was continuing, the Israel Defense Force was evaluating the mistakes made in Lebanon—helicopters needed better short-range munitions, improved air-ground coordination, care in using tanks unsupported by infantry, and so on.

But contrary to the insistence of armchair strategists now, it would not be easy to seize control of all the Gaza Strip and govern it for an extended period of time. Hamas is not going to go away. International support for Israel is limited. Fatah and the Palestinian Authority will not react strongly to try to take Gaza back for itself. There are about one million people in the Gaza Strip and Hamas will make every attempt to ensure there are civilian casualties—and pretend there are even more.

So “total victory” is not easy, if it is even possible. The irony is that Israeli policy is based on the idea that there is no military solution to these issues. But since there is no diplomatic solution either, force must be used to protect Israel and its citizens.

It should be remembered that Israel withdrew completely from the Gaza Strip, dismantled all settlements, and wished the Palestinians good luck.  The Palestinian Authority (PA) was not up to the challenge. It could and would not change its corrupt and incompetent ways. U.S. policy insisted that Hamas be allowed to run in the elections, even though it did not meet the standard of accepting the 1993 Israel-PLO agreement. Hamas won.

But Hamas invoked the radical Islamist policy of “one man, one vote, one time.”  It staged a coup and kicked out its PA and Fatah rivals. Rather than focusing on economic development or even maintaining peace to build up its own power, Hamas pursued its strategy of permanent war against Israel. Children’s programs taught the kiddies that they should grow up to be suicide bombers and kill Jews.  Hamas soldiers, or their junior allies, fired rockets and mortars at Israel. And of course Hamas staged a cross-border raid and kidnapped an Israeli soldier.

In spite of this, many in the West think Israel has some kind of choice in this matter, that diplomacy was an option, that Hamas could be reasoned with. Those people have clearly never heard a Hamas leader speak or read anything on the group’s Arabic-language websites. In a real sense, Hamas is more extreme than Usama bin Ladin, who periodically offers his enemy the chance to repent. Hamas’s goal is genocidal.

This has nothing to do with being dovish or hawkish, left or right. For those who are the biggest peaceniks—and this is true in Israel—know that Hamas must be defeated if Israel is ever to make peace with the PA.  Even the PA knows it, and that’s what they say in private, no matter what they say in public.

The offensive is only going to last so long. It would be nice to believe that Hamas will be overthrown, less extreme Palestinians will take over, or Israel will just sit in the Gaza Strip for months or even years to come without any major problem.  These are not real options.

Hamas wants nothing more than to be able to organize an underground to launch daily attacks on Israeli patrols going through the center of refugee camps.  It should be remembered that, for better or worse, it was the Israeli military—not the politicians—who wanted to withdraw from the Gaza Strip for tactical reasons. It was easier to hold a defensive line in strength than to play into Hamas’s strong points by trying to control all the territory.

Clearly, this didn’t take into account the rockets but it is easy to think that if Israeli forces had been in the Gaza Strip every day since the withdrawal, Israeli casualties would have been a lot higher while Fatah and Hamas would be fighting side to side against Israel, and international diplomacy would have been far more hostile to Israel.

No one should have any illusions that this conflict is going to go away. The peace process era, 1993-2000, taught us that Iran, Syria, Hamas, Hizballah, and radical Islamist groups meant what they said. They will never accept peace with Israel.  Israel will be involved in a struggle with these extremist groups for decades.

Yet that does not mean Israel cannot—and does not—prevail. It prevails by maintaining good lives for its citizens, developing its economy, and raising living standards, progressing in technology and science and medicine.

In this context, Israel will not listen to those many who counsel it to commit suicide, but it also has no illusions of a victory, of a war that will end all wars.  And in a real sense that is Israel’s true strength: it is not naïve about either concessions or force. If you have realistic expectations, if you aren’t disappointed, then you never give up.

Often, nowadays, it seems as if all history is being rewritten when it comes to Israel. In World War Two, allied air forces carpet-bombed cities even though there were no military bases in civilian areas. In France alone, tens of thousands of civilians were killed by allied bombs that fell on their intended targets.

Even the Nazis didn’t put ammunition dumps in houses and use human shields.  And up until now the blame for doing so would fall on those who deliberately and cynically sought to create civilian casualties in order to gain support for themselves.

Up until now, a country whose neighbor fired across the border at its people and even staged cross-border raids had the right of self-defense.

Up until now, there has been a capability of understanding which group is inciting hatred, trying to turn children into robotic terrorists, calling for the extermination of another people, and committing aggression.

Many people, many journalists, many governments, and even many intellectuals still understand the most basic principles of right and wrong as well as of the real world. Unfortunately, too many don’t or at least don’t when Israel is the target.

Finally, it is of the greatest importance to understand that this is not an issue of Gaza or of Israel alone. The great issue of our era, of our remaining lifetimes, is the battle between radical Islamism—whether using the tactic of terrorism or not—and the rest of the world.  To isolate this question as merely something about Israel is to misunderstand everything important about the world today.

Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), with Walter Laqueur (Viking-Penguin); the paperback edition of The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan); A Chronological History of Terrorism, with Judy Colp Rubin, (Sharpe); and The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley). To read and subscribe to MERIA and other GLORIA Center publications or to order books, visit http://www.gloriacenter.org.

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Finish the job

Friday, January 2nd, 2009

The balance of power between Israel and the Iranian proxy entities of Hamas and Hezbollah had been turning relentlessly against Israel for some time, until recently.

Every time that Israel allowed the terrorists to strike with relative impunity — every time the response was ‘proportionate’ — Hamas and Hezbollah gained support among Palestinians and respect in the world as a whole (because, no matter what they say, even overcivilized Europeans love a winner).

Every time there is a lopsided exchange like the disastrous trade with Hezbollah that freed the despicable child-killer Samir Kuntar, the status of the terrorists rose and Israel’s deterrence dropped. Look at how Kuntar was (literally) embraced by most Arab leaders!

Now Israel seems to be saying “enough is enough” and is striking hard at Hamas. And it is still not playing by its enemies’ evil rules — what Thomas Friedman called “Hama rules” after the erasure of the Syrian city of Hama and the murder of most of its inhabitants by Hafez al-Assad — and is taking great care to avoid harming civilians.

However, it is still possible for Israel to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, as Caroline Glick points out clearly today. Israel has killed some 300-odd Hamas personnel out of an army of at least 10,000, possibly 20,000. Israel has destroyed huge stocks of weapons, numerous buildings and some smuggling tunnels, but given the right conditions, Hamas could re-arm quickly, just as Hezbollah did since 2006.

If, as Glick fears, Israel is prepared to accept a settlement — such as is proposed by the Israel-hostile EU — that allows Hamas to control access to Gaza by sea or does not adequately secure the Egyptian border, or, God forbid, implements a UNIFIL-like force to protect Hamas while it rearms, as the UN has done for Hezbollah — then Israel will have lost the war as surely as if Haniyeh’s forces had taken Tel Aviv.

The missiles may stop falling for now, and the Israeli government will say that its aims have been achieved. Hamas, of course, will celebrate triumphantly amid the ruins of buildings Israel bombed while they were empty, and set to work rebuilding their capability, like Hezbollah, to an even higher level.

There is only one way for Israel to win this war and that is to destroy Hamas’ ability to fight, now and in the future. That will mean that Israel must completely cut the supply lines under the Egyptian border, something that cannot be done from the air, and keep them cut. And it must remove the Hamas leadership to a much greater degree than it has done so far. And finally, it must neutralize the Hamas army, which has remained almost entirely untouched.

Unfortunately, this means that a lot more blood will have to flow before this is over, Palestinian and Israeli blood. But if it doesn’t flow now, it will certainly flow later.

Tzipi Livni is presently in Paris. Let’s hope she is telling the Europeans thanks, but no thanks. Israel must not give up diplomatically what it can and must win militarily.

Finish the job.

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Lies and libels in the ‘progressive media’

Thursday, January 1st, 2009

If you listen to Pacifica Radio, read the Guardian or visit ‘progressive’ web sites, you will hear and read a lot of lies about the war raging between Israel and Hamas. Here are some of them:

  • Israel is targeting civilians.

Of the approximately 400 Palestinians killed so far, UNRWA — a pro-Hamas source if there ever was one — claims that 25% were civilians. Israeli sources give a figure of 10%. Even if UNRWA is right, this is still a low figure for modern warfare: In WWII, Germany suffered 3.5 million military personnel killed vs. 2 million civilians. Vietnam (North and South) probably had twice as many civilian as military casualties during the Vietnam war.

Considering the number of Israeli air strikes and the fact that Hamas has deliberately sited many of its facilities in densely populated areas, the only reason that civilian deaths could be so low is that Israel is trying not to hurt civilians, which is in fact the case. Compare this to the strategic bombing policy employed by the Allies in WWII.

If Israel wanted to perpetrate a holocaust, as many Hamas partisans say (for example, http://www.democracynow.org/2008/12/29/israeli_attacks_kill_over_310_in), all it would have to do is shell the cities indiscriminately with artillery, not engage in expensive precision air strikes. In that case, tens of thousands — not tens — of civilians would be killed.

  • Israel is preventing food and medicine from reaching Gaza.

Despite the fact that Israel is at war with Hamas — a regime that most of the population  supports — it has transferred food and medical supplies to Gaza, and allowed shipments from Egypt. According to the Israeli embassy in Washington, Israel has transferred over 6500 tons of aid to Gaza at the request of international agencies since the beginning of the war. It has not even turned off the 70% of its electricity that Gaza receives from the Israeli grid! This behavior is probably unique in the history of warfare, where starvation of enemy populations was a common tactic.

  • Israel broke the truce.

Israel attacked Hamas after Hamas announced that it was ending the truce and fired about 170 missiles in 3 days. Hamas claims that Israel violated the truce by killing 3 Hamas members — who were surprised while planting a powerful explosive device at the border fence between Gaza and Israel. They also cite Israel’s actions in the West Bank, where Israel never agreed to allow Hamas a free hand.

  • Hamas missiles are “amateur rockets” which which “nag” Israel (both of these phrases have been used).

Hamas has several types of missile, all of which are deadly. The Qassams, which are manufactured in Gaza, have a range of up to 6 miles and can carry up to 10 pounds of explosives, laced with ball bearings. They are highly inaccurate but have managed to kill about 15 people, since they are fired in large numbers at populated areas.

Hamas also has ‘Grad’ type rockets. A Russian design, they are manufactured in Iran and now China. These are anything but ‘amateur’, being full-fledged military antipersonnel weapons. They have a range of up to about 24 miles and carry up to 18 pounds of high explosive. About 900,000 Israelis are now in range of Hamas missiles.

  • It’s all about Israeli elections.

Everything has political consequences, but that doesn’t mean that everything happens for political reasons. Ehud Barak and Tzipi Livni will get ‘points’ if the operation is successful, but a less-than-good outcome will elect Binyamin Netanyahu. One can equally say that Hamas chose to end the truce when it did in order to garner support in Palestinian elections, scheduled for this April.

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