Barry Rubin and Jonathan Speyer on The Anglo-American pro-Hamas lobby (yes, there is one. Hizballah, too). Incidentally, Barry Rubin’s new blog is excellent, and should be on everyone’s list to read regularly.
Ralph Peters on 21st Century diplomacy and War, the complete article by Peters with comments by Richard Landes on Landes’ blog. Peters explains how and why the ostensibly greatest military power the world has ever known has apparently forgotten the most basic truths about warfare.
DEBKAfile’s Iranian and intelligence sources disclose that Moscow warned Tehran Friday April 17 that Israel was planning to destroy all 140 fighter-bombers concentrated at the Mehr-Abad Air Force base for an air show over Tehran on Iran’s Army Day the following day. The entire fleet was accordingly removed to remote bases and the display canceled.
In the first week of April, Tehran announced it would stage its biggest air show ever to dramatize a ceremonial military parade in the capital on April 18. Iran would show the world that it is capable of fighting off an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities. Instead only four aircraft flew over the saluting stand. Iranian media explained that the big show was canceled due to “bad weather and poor visibility,” when in fact Tehran basked in warm and sunny weather.
1) The logistics of an air attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities are complex enough that it’s doubtful that any aircraft would be diverted to a secondary target. The poorly-maintained Iranian air force would not be a threat to the strike force, so why attack it? Syrian and Hezbollah missiles aimed at Israel pose a greater danger.
2) While Israel will likely attack Iran when there is no alternative to prevent Iran from obtaining deliverable nuclear weapons, nobody thinks that this point has been reached yet.
DEBKA’s sensational fantasies do not do anything for their credibility.
Interesting photos department:
The following picture is making the rounds in Israel. It supposedly shows a Palestinian truck modified for use as a mobile Qassam launcher. If anyone knows whether this is for real or a product of Photoshop, please let me know.
The top caption reads “note from where they are launching the Qassams and mortars”. The bottom one translates the Arabic sign on the cab: “if this vehicle violates traffic laws, please contact the Palestinian Authority”. Indeed.