The writer is an old friend of mine. I received this recently and thought it was clever, thought-provoking, and deserving of a wider audience. For what it’s worth, I would not expect Israel to strike Iran except to preempt an imminent attack.
PaRDeS of Chinese Mideast expert Yin Gang’s statement to Yossi Melman of Ha’aretz
by ‘Altalena’
To underscore China’s unique diplomatic policy, Yin made the following surprising statement: “China is opposed to any military action against Iran that would damage regional stability and interfere with the flow of oil. But China will not stop Israel if it decides to attack Iran. For all these reasons, Israel and the Middle East need a country like China. Israel needs China’s power.”
— Ha’aretz: ‘China will not stop Israel if it decides to attack Iran‘
- Peshat (פְּשָ×ט) “simple” or direct meaning.
- Remez (רֶמֶז) “hint” or deep meaning beyond the literal sense.
- Derash (דְּרַש×) from darash: “inquire”— the comparative meaning, as given through similar occurrences.
- Sod (סוֹד) “secret” or the mystical meaning, as given through inspiration or revelation.
The plain-truth peshat is that China needs a stable flow of Mideast oil . . . would take no action if Beijing were to learn that Israel was about to hit Iran . . . and should be regarded as a player by the countries of the Mideast.
The word-to-the-wise remez is that China could stop Israel from hitting Iran if it wanted to.
The subtext derash is that China is a great power whose needs Israel should take strongly into account when deciding what to do about Iran–not just, as may currently be the case, the views of the conventional big dogs, the US, the EU, Russia, and the Arab countries.
The eyes-only sod is that Beijing would be POSITIVELY THRILLED AND UTTERLY DELIGHTED if Israel were to kneecap Iran, which would result in a more stable supply of cheaper oil for China, as Iran with its limited reserves and high but dwindling population wants the highest possible price ASAP (in contrast to the Saudis, who want a moderate price over a very long term because their population is low and their reserves are huge) to serve the needs of those Iranians who are now alive and the few progeny who will survive them; aprés them le deluge.
Sounds to me like the Chinese are saying this:
If you shoot the Iranian elephant, you better kill it. Don’t leave it wounded so it can proceed to muck things up.
A hypothetical Israeli strike on Iran is OK by China, so long as it is a decisive strike that not only disables the Iranian nuke program, but also largely destroys their ability to use their military or paramilitary forces to interfere with oil traffic. It’s going to have to be a comphrehensive strike that disables the Iranian navy, air force, and assorted Revolutionary Guard units (to include rocket forces, that are under their control) that could be used in the Gulf region to interrupt the flow of oil.
We’re not talking “kneecapping”, here. We’re talking a knockout, skull-fracturing crowbar to the temple.