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Thanks to prolific commenter Shalom Freedman for calling this current item to my attention:

The Middle East is in danger of accumulating large stocks of nuclear material over the next decade that could be used to produce over 1,700 nuclear bombs, a U.S. research center has projected in a newly released report.

The Institute for Science and International Security [ISIS], headed by David Albright, one the world’s top experts on nuclear weapons and the prevention of nuclear proliferation, recently released its report urging president-elect Barack Obama to take a number of measures to avoid such an outcome, including convincing Israel to halt production of its nuclear weapons.

“The Obama administration should make a key priority of persuading Israel to join the negotiations for a universal, verified treaty that bans the production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium for nuclear explosives, commonly called the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT),” the institute argued. “As an interim step, the United States should press Israel to suspend any production of fissile material for nuclear weapons…” — Ha’aretz

The UN’s nuclear ‘watchdog’ Mohammed ElBaradei was even more forthright in 2004:

“This is not really sustainable that you have Israel sitting with nuclear weapons capability there while everyone else is part of the non-proliferation regime,” ElBaradei told The Sydney Morning Herald.

ElBaradei said Muslims in the surrounding region resented Israel’s nuclear arsenal and wanted it to be part of the non-proliferation program.

“It is a very emotional issue in the Middle East,” ElBaradei said.  — Ha’aretz

Emotional indeed. ElBaradei went on to say that he was ‘encouraged’ by Iran’s agreement to suspend enrichment (remember that?),

But he warned that getting Tehran to give up any ambition to develop nuclear weapons would depend on whether Israel was brought into the equation…

Commenting on Israel’s stance that a comprehensive peace settlement must be in place before nuclear disarmament could go ahead, ElBaradei recommended a compromise.

“My take on this is that we will probably need to do the two together in tandem,” he said. “You need a security structure to undergird, if you like, protect, that peace process.”

The idea that Iran is building nuclear weapons to protect itself against aggression from Israel is beyond absurd — except perhaps in the halls of the UN. And the suggestion that Israel should give up her last-ditch deterrent against an attack with weapons of mass destruction — which have been stockpiled by her enemies — while she is effectively at war, is nothing less then a demand for national suicide. But ElBaradei is a UN man and an Egyptian to boot, so what else should one expect?

The ISIS report is another matter. There’s no doubt that it will be taken seriously by the incoming administration. Although it does not call for Israel to divest herself of existing weapons now, this is the ultimate goal:

To reduce the risk of proliferation in the Middle East and help lay the basis for a regionwide nuclear weapon free zone (NWFZ), the United States must ensure that plutonium is not separated from irradiated reactor fuel, insist on adequate international inspections of these countries, including the adoption of the Additional Protocol, and develop mechanisms to remove spent fuel from the region.  [my emphasis]

“These countries” include “Iran, Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Iraq … Israel [and] Turkey”.  This is another example of the “you guys stop fighting” syndrome, which everyone remembers from his or her schooldays, in which the authority figure makes no attempt to distinguish between the bullies and the bullied.

It’s safe to say that if there is one country in the world which actually needs nuclear weapons it’s ‘the Jew among nations’, Israel. And although it sounds naive in today’s media climate, the truth is that Israel would like nothing more than to live at peace with her neighbors, while they would like nothing more than to destroy her. 

The argument that proliferation would be reduced if Israel gets rid of her capability would only be true if her enemies sought nuclear weapons out of fear that Israel would attack them. But the majority of Israelis and their leadership have made it clear that they do not want to expand the territory under their control.  And Israel has acted in a way consistent with this belief, shedding the Sinai and Gaza and leaving southern Lebanon.

Indeed, if Israel did not have nuclear capability, then it would be advantageous for her enemies to obtain it themselves, since it could then be used against Israel without fear of a counterstrike! Furthermore, if Israel gave up her deterrent it would increase the possibility of a chemical/biological attack, which historically has been deterred by fear of a nuclear response.

The ISIS report, in its narrow focus on the sheer quantity of nuclear material in the region without considering the ramifications of who possesses it and what they might do with it, does not do the cause of peace any favors.  In fact, the argument is so bad that one suspects that it is being made now and in this form to act as support and cover for a deal in which Israel’s deterrent will traded for an Iranian promise.

Technorati Tags: Israel, ISIS, nuclear weapons, proliferation, Middle East, Iran

Baker, Brzezinski, Malley, Mearsheimer, Scowcroft, Walt, etc. have all been called foreign policy realists. What are they being realistic about?

In connection with the Middle East, there are apparently two things:

1. There are far more Arabs and Persians than Israelis. There are 24 Arab nations in the Middle East and Africa with about 325 million people (Iran has another 70 million).  On a map large enough to show them all, Israel with its 6 million people is almost invisible.
2. About 56% of the world’s petroleum reserves are found in five Arab countries and Iran.

Now it so happens that almost all 25 nations — their leadership and the man in the street — are more or less hostile to Israel, from the openly confrontational Iran and Syria to the ‘cold peace’ of Egypt and Jordan. The realists believe that facts 1) and 2) above imply that American policy should tilt toward these nations and against Israel.

There are other facts, but because they do not bear on questions of power they are not taken into account by realists. Examples of such facts are that Israel is the most free and democratic nation in the Mideast, that Israel is entirely legitimate under a fair reading of international law, and that despite pro-Arab historical revisionism, the existence of a Jewish state in the land of Israel is morally justified.

And then there is one more fact that does not appear on realist radar: the intentions of many of the state and non-state players in the Mideast toward Israel are frankly genocidal.

All these are irrelevant to the realist who is only concerned with hard relationships of power and economics. However, there are some power-related facts that have kept Israel alive despite almost continuous challenges from her enemies. One of the most important ones is the impossible-to-ignore Israeli nuclear deterrent. Although a weapon of absolute last resort, it gives Syria, for example, with its tens of thousands of conventional and biochemical warheads aimed at Israel, something to think very carefully about. I suggest that even mighty Russia can’t entirely ignore this factor.

The realist point of view seems to have taken hold of Bush Administration policy. It was expressed in the Iraq Study Group report of December 2006, and is the driving force behind the ‘Annapolis process’, whose goal is to create a Palestinian state, above all. Judging by President Elect Obama’s choice of advisors and by reading between the lines of his very guarded comments, it appears that his administration is likely to be even more ‘realistic’ about the Mideast than this.

During the campaign Obama advocated engagement of nations hostile to both the US and Israel such as Iran and Syria, and the exercise of ‘tough diplomacy’ to achieve such goals as ending the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Critics asked exactly what leverage we would have in diplomatic talks, given that we have made it clear that military options and actually painful sanctions are off the table. There has been no clear answer.

What we didn’t ask was “who will the ‘tough diplomacy’ be tough on?” And the answer isn’t ‘Iran and Syria’.

Caroline Glick writes,

By pressuring Israel to cede land to Syria and the Palestinians, Obama’s apparent foreign policy will provide Iran with still more territory from which to attack Israel both through its terror proxies and with its expanding ballistic missile arsenal. By embracing the Syrian regime in spite of its support for terrorism, its nuclear proliferation activities and its subversion of Lebanon, the incoming Obama administration will embolden Syria to increase its subversion of Lebanon and Iraq, while strengthening its ties to Iran still further.

As for direct talks with Iran itself, the question immediately arises, what could Obama offer Teheran in exchange for an end to its nuclear program that Bush hasn’t already offered?

What it can offer is Israel.

Over the past few years, Obama’s top nuclear nonproliferation adviser, Joe Cirincione, has repeatedly advocated placing Israel’s nuclear arsenal on the negotiating table and offering it up in exchange for an Iranian pledge to end its nuclear program. Defense Secretary Robert Gates – whom Obama is considering retaining – insinuated in his 2006 confirmation hearings that Iran is only building nuclear weapons to defend itself against Israel. Gates, it should be recalled, has been instrumental in convincing Bush not only not to attack Iran’s nuclear installations, but not to support an Israeli attack against Iran’s nuclear installations. [my emphasis]

So that’s the gist of it (but read all of Glick’s excellent article). Of course Obama and his officials will continue to insist that the security of Israel is paramount, and that the US will not allow it to be compromised — just as he did during his campaign.  But there’s no question that an Israel without its nuclear deterrent would shortly cease to exist.

While this may not be the intention of Barack Obama, it is a consequence of the realist policy — in essence, to sacrifice the interests of small and economically insignificant Israel in favor of those of the massive oil powers of the region. And those interests include the elimination of Israel.

Technorati Tags: Israel, Obama, realists, tough diplomacy, Iran, Syria

Ami Isseroff has written the best analysis I’ve seen of the military-political bind that Israel finds herself in vis-a-vis Hamas (and Hezbollah, for that matter). As he shows, the problem of Gaza is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in microcosm. Israel must develop a consistent  long-term strategy — and then take action. Today she simply responds to events which are choreographed by her enemies. The result is a slow, incremental defeat.

This is a must-read.

Gaza events: Israeli-Palestinian conflict in miniature

By Ami Isseroff

Those who want to learn from history can get a whole education from recent events in Gaza. The Hamas government or their allies or a splinter faction or someone, dug a tunnel into Israel in order to kidnap Israeli soldiers. By luck, Israel found out about the tunnel and destroyed it, triggering rocket and mortar fire into Sderot and Ashkelon. These were not just little Qassam rockets, but professional Grad – upgraded Katyushas, falling in Ashkelon. Israel responded by firing at the “militants” launching the rockets. Next, IDF killed four “militants” about to plant a bomb near the Kissufim crossing.

While all this show was going on, and not by coincidence, the Quartet held a meeting upholding the Annapolis “process.” At the same time, a group of European MPs landed in Gaza to show their support for the genocidal Hamas. Mr Ismail Hanniyeh, the “good cop” told them the Hamas would make a truce with Israel if Israel withdrew to the 1967 lines. Presumably the truce would look like the current lull and would be kept in the same way. Hanniyeh forgot to tell the MPs that the deal would include Right of Return for Palestinian refugees, which would destroy the state of Israel as a Jewish homeland. Moreover, the “bad cop,” Mahmoud Zahar, promptly announced that no such truce was currently on offer, a retraction that got less publicity.

Israeli PM Olmert told IDF troops that a clash in Gaza was “unavoidable”. Since the clash is ongoing that hardly required the prophetic vision of Isaiah, but it is likely that Ehud Olmert meant a more major clash might ensue.

What can we learn from this confused babel? A number of points emerge which characterize most relations with the Palestinians since 1994, and in particular those with the late Mr. Yasser Arafat‘s government and the Hamas government in Gaza.

Continue reading this article

Technorati Tags: Israel, Hamas, Gaza, Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Ami Isseroff

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, in order to change the image of Saudi Arabia promote religious tolerance, has embarked on a program of interfaith dialogue.

Reuters reports:

King Abdullah, promoted by Saudi Arabia as a moderate who can deal with the rest of the world, met Pope Benedict in the Vatican last year, brought Sunni and Shi’ite clerics to Mecca in March and religious leaders to Madrid in June.

Now the king and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon are organizing a special session of the U.N. general assembly on Wednesday and Thursday for talks on “interfaith” issues and the “Culture of Peace.”

How is it possible to make sense of this, from the country that does not permit Jews to reside there and only rarely to visit (until recently, the official Saudi Arabian tourism website indicated that “Jewish persons” would not be admitted), where it is illegal to construct a Christian church, where some cities are off-limits to non-Muslims, and where “insulting Islam” is punishable by beheading?

About thirty world leaders including President Bush and Israeli President Shimon Peres are expected to attend. But just in case you are pinching your cheek to see if you are dreaming, keep in mind that Jew Peres wasn’t invited by the King and may have to scuttle in through a side door:

After the Saudi Ambassador [to Lebanon], Abdel Aziz Khoja, clarified Saudi’s position regarding Israel’s invite to the inter-faith conference stating that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was not responsible for extending an invitation to the Israeli president, ex-premier Salim al Hoss issued a statement that said, “I apologize for anything in my statement that has offended our big sister, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, directly or indirectly.” — Asharq al-Awsat, (a “pan-Arab” newspaper published in London)

God forbid that anyone should think that the Saudi king was that tolerant! Peres’ invitation came from the UN, which unlike King Abdullah, has to keep up appearances.

OK, so what does the Monarch of Megapetrobucks expect to get out of this conference? Is he planning to build a cathedral in Riyadh? Will Chabadniks walk the streets looking for Jews to get them to put on tefillin?

Hardly. Here’s what he said:

“I will go to America for the dialogue of followers of religions,” the king said at a meeting with Information Minister Ayad Madani and newspaper editors. “The dialogue comes at a time when the world is criticizing Islam.”  — Jerusalem Post

Now we begin to understand. The problem that needs to be solved is not the treatment of non-Muslims in Saudi Arabia, but the treatment of Muslims in the rest of the world. Although it is unlikely that he can get the US, the EU, and other more or less democratic societies to behead those that insult Islam, maybe they would agree to an ear or a nose.

Saudi road sign

Technorati Tags: King Abdullah, Saudi Arabia, religious tolerance

The Palestinians would like a fair shake from the Obama administration. One would think that they should be optimistic, given Obama’s much-ballyhooed connections with Rashid Khalidi, Ali Abunimah, etc. But look at how they go about it:

Al-Kuds al-Arabi, an Arabic language publication in London, claims that Rahm Emanuel’s father was “personally involved” in the Deir Yassin massacre. Here is a slightly cleaned-up Google translation of the item:

Nazareth – ‘Jerusalem is Arab’ from Zuhair Andrews: Benjamin [Emanuel]…  father of [Rahm], who was appointed by U.S. President-elect Barack Obama as White House chief of staff, which is the second most powerful post in the White House, [was] personally involved in the implementation of the Deir Yassin massacre in 1947 [sic: 1948].

Emanuel’s father was a member of the Irgun (or Etzel, short for Irgun Tzvai Leumi, [National military organization], the pre-state militia commanded by Menachem Begin, one of whose units took part in the Deir Yassin incident. Here is what a relatively well-documented Wikipedia article says about Benjamin Emanuel:

Benjamin Auerbach was born in Jerusalem in 1927, the son of pharmacists who had fled Russian pogroms. The family adopted the surname Emanuel in 1933, after Benjamin’s brother, Emanuel Auerbach, was killed in a skirmish with Arabs in Jerusalem. In the 1940s, Benjamin Emanuel interrupted his medical school training in Switzerland to take part in an unsuccessful scheme to smuggle guns from Czechoslovakia to the Israeli underground. He later served as a medic in the 1948 Israeli war of independence.

The business about Deir Yassin is new, but extreme right- and left-wing, anti-Semitic and pro-Arab websites have been happily claiming that Rahm Emanuel is the ‘son of a terrorist’ and illustrating it with quotes about the Irgun’s activities.

I am not going to try to write a history book here, but everyone is aware that the last days of the British Palestine Mandate were characterized by a struggle of various militias — Jewish and Arab — to control the land when the British left. Most of the Irgun’s violence was directed at the British, but not all of it. It wouldn’t be incorrect to say that everyone involved in the conflict except for the British was a ‘terrorist’ in some sense.

Regarding Deir Yassin, accounts differ but probably about 110 Arabs were killed, combatants and non-combatants. There is no doubt that some civilians were murdered by undisciplined Irgun and Lehi troops, but Arab accounts were exaggerated, both in numbers and in details. For example, there were no rapes — even Arab sources admit that these were fabricated in order to stir up the populace. As far as I know there is no list of Jewish participants in the battle, and no evidence that Benjamin Emanuel was among them. Certainly there seems to be no source cited in the al-Kuds al-Arabi article.

I could be wrong, but unless evidence to the contrary shows up, I will assume that this ‘fact’ is simply made up.

Perhaps this is preparing the ground to attack Obama’s administration if it takes anything other than an extreme anti-Israel position. Look, the White House is still dominated by Zionists!

Technorati Tags: Benjamin Emanuel, Rahm Emanuel, Obama, Arabs, Deir Yassin, Irgun