Archive for the ‘General’ Category

Ha’aretz editorial shows warped perspective

Wednesday, August 8th, 2007

An editorial on Wednesday’s Ha’aretz English site discusses the so-called ‘Peres plan’, which I mentioned yesterday (and which the Prime Minister’s and President’s office have denied). Ha’aretz believes that we are now on the verge of “genuine diplomatic processes and practical plans for solving the conflict”, as opposed to previous “empty words” and “barren meetings”.

What is the great breakthrough that PM Olmert and Palestinian President Abbas have achieved at their recent meeting? Nothing less than this:

Olmert, basing himself on a proposal by President Shimon Peres, welcomed the key principle of the Arab peace initiative, which guarantees that negotiations over the borders of the Palestinian state will be based on the June 4, 1967, lines.

It seems to me that all two-state proposals, including Oslo, the Geneva Initiative, etc. have ‘based themselves’ on the 1967 borders, more or less. So this isn’t exactly a breakthrough.

Maybe it’s the part about the Arab [League] Peace Initiative? But that calls for “Full Israeli withdrawal from all the territories occupied since 1967, including the Syrian Golan Heights, to the June 4, 1967 lines”, which of course does not leave room for Israel to keep some settlement blocs while compensating the Palestinians with land from within the 1967 lines, as in the Peres plan. Nor does it leave room for the “practical and balanced solutions for the issues of Jerusalem and the refugees’ return to places other than Israel’s sovereign territory” that are called for in the Peres plan.

So either Olmert has agreed to nothing, or he has given away the store.

Ha’aretz’ exposition of the alleged Peres plan is interesting not so much for the content, as for the point of view it exposes:

The Peres document proposes that Israel and the Palestinians draft a document of principles, with an upfront guarantee that Israel will provide the Palestinian state with territory equal to 100 percent of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. A prior agreement on this central issue, along with a binding timetable, would enable negotiations to be held on the details of the agreement. Such a discussion would focus, among other issues, on what compensation the Palestinians would receive for the designated settlement blocs, which must not interfere with the West Bank’s territorial contiguity.

It seems strange to me that somewhere along the way from the Balfour Declaration, through the major wars and minor conflicts, it has become enshrined as an inviolable principle that the territories belong to the Palestinians, and Israel must transfer them or compensate their owners.

It might be possible to convince me that for practical reasons Israel should not hold on to all of the territories, but I certainly do not start from the position that they are Palestinian territories which Israel must give back to their rightful owners! But this is the position expressed above, and what bothers me about it is the slippery slope to the next step, which is the general Palestinian position that all of the area of the mandate belongs to them, from the river to the sea. If we agree that the territories are Palestinian, what is the distinction between them and the rest of Israel?

Ha’aretz continues to display its remarkable perspective as follows:

Moreover, time is not on the side of pragmatic forces in the Middle East. Israel’s failed war in Lebanon, and the failure of American policy in Iraq, have raised the status of Shi’ite fanatics like Hassan Nasrallah, who receive support from Iran. [my emphasis]

Israel’s war? Somehow I’d thought that Hezbollah’s invasion of Israel, the kidnappings, and the rocket attacks would make it Nasrallah’s war.

And here’s the main point Ha’aretz wants to make:

Without a substantive change in the situation in the territories [i.e., Israel abandoning them], Hamas’ takeover of the Gaza Strip is liable to turn out to be the first step in a takeover of the entire territories by Islamic fanatics.

And I ask: How will an abandonment of the West Bank be different from the abandonment of Gaza?

Olmert, Peres, Abbas, and Fayad may sign a document with great fanfare, and maybe more Nobel Prizes will be distributed. Then, when the IDF has evacuated the Jewish residents from the Judenrein province of Palestine and has withdrawn across the green line, what will prevent Hamas from doing exactly what they did in Gaza?

Maybe this time they won’t even have to fight; perhaps the Saudis can negotiate a unity government for them.

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The US vs. Palestinian reconciliation

Wednesday, August 8th, 2007

Perhaps we shouldn’t have bolstered Abbas so much:

US House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer has warned Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas not to talk to an unreformed Hamas about reentering a unity government ahead of a visit to Israel and the West Bank next week.

“Dealing with Hamas and being in any coalition with Hamas [without Hamas accepting international demands to stop terrorism and recognize Israel] would be something which we would look on with opposition and suspicion,” Hoyer (D-Maryland) told The Jerusalem Post in a telephone interview Wednesday. He said such a government would be a “setback” and a “cause for concern.”

Hoyer’s comments followed a Post report that officials from Abbas’s Fatah party have been conducting secret negotiations with Hamas about a possible reconciliation, with the help of mediators from Arab countries. — Jerusalem Post

I just love watching slow-motion train wrecks. This whole scenario was predicted in detail (by Ami Isseroff and others) some time ago.

The US will look very progressive, won’t it, lobbying against Palestinan reconciliation. On the other hand, a rapprochement between Fatah and Hamas will be the death of the Bush Administration’s latest Israeli-Palestinian policy — and probably of some Israelis too, as Hamas adds even more armaments to its collection.Dry Bones: Olmert explains

The obvious flaws in the US policy make it hard to understand why it was selected in the first place. The fact that the “mediators from Arab countries” are probably the Saudis may give us a clue.

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A two-state deal in the making?

Tuesday, August 7th, 2007

Israeli PM Olmert and President Peres have strongly denied reports that they are talking about a two-state deal with the Palestinians that will allow Israel to keep about 5% of the heavily Jewish portions of the West Bank, while compensating the Palestinians with some Arab-populated territory within the 1967 lines, with the consent of the residents.

Although this would be a rational way of bringing about a two-state solution, insofar as any such solution could be made to work, it is impossible for at least two reasons.

First, very few Arab citizens of Israel, no matter how ‘Palestinized’ they may have become, will be prepared to trade the conditions they enjoy in Israel for life in a Palestinian state governed by the Islamist Hamas or the corrupt Fatah.

And second, the PA is not interested in “populated-area exchange” because they see the Israeli Arab population as a lever to put pressure on Israel, even as a possible fifth column in the event of a regional war. The last thing they want is fewer Arabs inside Israel.

M.K. Avigdor LiebermanIn fact, a form of this plan was proposed by right-wing cabinet minister Avigdor Lieberman in 2004:

The Lieberman Plan suggests a territorial exchange whereby Israel would acquire most Jewish regions in the West Bank at the same time as it would cede Arab regions of Israel to the Palestinian Authority. There are three major Arab regions in Israel, all contigious with the West Bank; (1) the southern and central Galilee, (2) the central region known as “the Triangle” and (3) the Bedouin region in the northern part of the Negev desert. Giving up these three regions would reduce the number of Israeli Arab citizens by 90%. Only those Arabs living in isolated villages and as minorities in Jewish cities would remain. The ethnically Druze community which is Zionist would also remain part of Israel. All remaining citizens whether Jews or Arabs would have to pledge an oath of allegiance to the state in order to keep their Israeli citizenship.

It would be ironic indeed to find Shimon Peres and Avigdor Lieberman on the same side of this issue, but even if the report is true, it’s certain that an Olmert/Peres plan would differ significantly from Lieberman’s. In response to the rumor, Lieberman said,

“I welcome the acceptance of my idea of population exchanges, because there is no other solution… The solution must include all of the settlement blocs and leave Jerusalem united under Israeli sovereignty. But there is no sense in talking about a Palestinian state until the PA proves itself.”

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Ehud Barak’s 20-20 hindsight

Monday, August 6th, 2007

I haven’t found the actual Hebrew text yet, but here is how the Jerusalem post reports the just-released testimony of Ehud Barak before the Winograd commission (tasked to investigate the failures associated with the Second Lebanon War):

[New Defense Minister,] Labor Party leader and former prime minister Ehud Barak told the Winograd Committee that after the kidnapping of two soldiers and the killing of eight others on July 12, 2006, it was inevitable that the government would launch a broad attack against Hizbullah, because it was led by civilians and had a new chief of General Staff, Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz.

He added that although he did not publicly express criticism at first, he had his doubts that this was the right choice.

“I told friends: ‘Let’s wait three weeks. It might turn out that you will come to realize that we had two prime ministers [referring to himself and Ariel Sharon] who were not so confused and not so blind, but rather felt sufficient peace of mind and self-confidence to determine when and how [we would strike] and that [the other side] would not force a second front upon us.”

Does the arrogance stand out? It does to me — especially coming from the guy who presided over the IDF’s flight from South Lebanon in 2000, which allowed Hezbollah to transform itself from an irritation to a serious threat.

We’ll never know how he would actually have reacted in the summer of 2006 if he had been in a position of responsibility. But I’m afraid that Hezbollah and Syria will soon give him a chance to demonstrate the quality of his judgment.

At least he’ll know to remove the lens caps from his binoculars.

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A Palestinian state tomorrow?

Monday, August 6th, 2007

There seem to be two views of the path ahead for the Palestinians. There is the American/Israeli view that Israel can negotiate the establishment of some kind of Palestinian state with the Abbas/Fayed administration in the West Bank:

It is our mutual aim to reach the joint vision of establishing two states for two peoples living side by side in peace and security and “we want to do this as soon as possible,” Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas during Monday afternoon’s meeting in Jericho.

Olmert sought to give Abbas the feeling that he had real intentions to move forward with the establishment of a Palestinian state and the two spoke of the fundamental issues that would be the basis for its creation. — Jerusalem Post

And there is the other view, held by Hamas — but also in circles opposed to Hamas — that Palestinian unity is a prerequisite to statehood:

Jibril Rajoub, a former PA security commander closely associated with Abbas, also saw no purpose in the meeting, saying that the Israeli government was incapable of advancing the peace process.

Rajoub, who had just returned from Egypt, urged Abbas to restore contacts with Hamas and to put an end to the situation of “two Palestinian Authorities – one in Gaza and the other in the West Bank.”

Both of these points of view assume that the creation of a Palestinian state should be the primary goal today. Many of those who believe that the only practical solution to the conflict is a two-state solution believe that the way to get there is to start with the two states. And some others believe that the way to get to a one (Palestinian) state solution is also to start with the two states.

But there are two big problems that have to be solved first.

One is that the ‘moderate’ Palestinian and Israeli bottom lines on certain issues are simply incompatible. These issues, of course, are borders, Jerusalem, and refugees. They can’t be negotiated away. This means that one side or another will have to be forced to agree. This does not bode well for the ultimate solution being a peaceful one.

The second big problem is that Hamas can’t be part of the process — because their bottom line doesn’t include Israel at all — but at the same time it is impossible to ignore them (after all, they are fighting a low-level war against Israel and preparing for a high-level one).

If we need to solve these problems before establishing the Palestinian state, how can we do it? I admit to being biased toward a solution which implies the continued existence of the State of Israel.

Let’s look at the second problem — Hamas — first. To borrow a phrase from Ted Belman, there is only a military solution to Hamas. I can’t think of a way to be less popular with my progressive friends than to advocate war, but a war of self-defense is a just war, and this would definitely be a war of self-defense.

Interestingly, a solution to Hamas would also be a solution to the first problem. I believe that the ‘moderate’ Palestinians have highly unrealistic positions because they believe that they are attainable by a combination of military pressure — from terrorists such as Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as nations like Syria — with diplomatic and economic leverage applied to the West by, for example, Saudi Arabia (this calls their ‘moderation’ into question, but that’s another topic).

So a demonstration that Israel cannot be defeated by terrorism would go a long way toward giving a voice to those Palestinians who are prepared to take positions on the major issues that are compatible with a true two-state solution, one in which Israel continues to exist. But this is not going to happen as long as Hamas is able to pursue its program.

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