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Hamas is not going to give up its dream of an Islamic state in place of Israel. It is not going to become ‘moderate’, it is not going to be controlled by a satellite Palestinian Authority, and it is fully focused on war:

“In the two years since the IDF left the Philadelphi Corridor (along the border between Gaza and Egypt), Hamas has leapt forward by a generation,” a senior IDF officer said in a briefing.

The relative quiet in Gaza in the past month has been maintained by Hamas only in order to be able to build up its forces and arsenal more easily, he said. “Sooner rather than later, there will be Katyusha rockets in Gaza. If they already possess missiles 115 mm in diameter, Katyushas are only a matter of time.”

Hamas has built a de facto army, the officer added, noting that their forces number from 12,000 to 13,000, with a clear command structure and training regime.

“Hamas already has four trained divisions… It also has forces specializing in various types of combat. An additional element is the hundreds of operatives traveling to Iran in order to acquire new (military) knowledge to bring back to Gaza.” — YNet

Since Israel gave up control of the border between Gaza and Egypt, the flow of weapons and explosives to Hamas has been massive. The international boycott of Hamas has not prevented Iran and Syria (and possibly other Arab states) from building up Hamas’ fighting ability, even while civilians suffer shortages. Hamas has been building fortifications like those in South Lebanon, and may also have antiaircraft and antitank weapons.

This situation cannot get better by itself, and it cannot be solved by any imaginable diplomatic activity. Every day Hamas gets stronger. And it’s impossible to consider Hamas in isolation: when war comes it may also involve Hezbollah, which has not been sitting still either.

We should also keep in mind that at some point, the Fatah army being built in the West Bank by the ill-conceived US plan to “bolster” the Palestinian authority will become a threat.

And I haven’t mentioned the Iranian threat to provide a nuclear umbrella to protect Hamas and Hezbollah. How much time is left before this becomes a deterrent?

Israelis really hate war and the idea of war, despite the propaganda coming daily from their enemies. But if war is inevitable, then it’s best to fight at a time and place of one’s choosing, and to have the advantage of surprise (as in 1967).

Israel needs time to correct the problems in the army and in “home front” defense that were made apparent in the war last summer. Israel must also find a way to deter Hezbollah and other forces from joining the fight, or neutralizing them if they do. But the time available is not unlimited.

Let’s hope Israel’s leadership is thinking in these terms.

Technorati Tags: Israel, Hamas

Just a few comments on President Bush’s speech about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict today. This is a long post, but there’s a lot there — and it doesn’t look good.

He said:

Israel has taken difficult actions, including withdrawal from Gaza and parts of the West Bank. Palestinians have held free elections, and chosen a president committed to peace. Arab states have put forward a plan that recognizes Israel’s place in the Middle East.

Obviously, he does not mention that the Palestinians elected a Hamas government in those free elections! More importantly, note the reference to the Arab League (Saudi) ‘peace’ initiative. There is really no positive way to construe this initiative, and it’s disappointing to see the US endorsing it.

In Gaza, Hamas radicals betrayed the Palestinian people with a lawless and violent takeover. By its actions, Hamas has demonstrated beyond all doubt that it is [more] devoted to extremism and murder than to serving the Palestinian people…

There’s another option, and that’s a hopeful option. It is the vision of President Abbas and Prime Minister Fayyad; it’s the vision of their government; it’s the vision of a peaceful state called Palestine as a homeland for the Palestinian people. To realize this vision, these leaders are striving to build the institutions of a modern democracy.

This comparison is strained. Yes, Hamas overthrew Fatah in Gaza. Both sides committed atrocities in the fighting; Hamas won because Fatah was poorly led and unmotivated. But the vision of both factions is similar in some important ways: both believe in violent ‘resistance’ against the Jewish state. Their founding documents say it and their actions prove it.

In terms of “serving the Palestinian people”, Hamas is arguably better than Fatah, which has provided an umbrella for criminals of all kinds who prey on the population, and whose officials are uniformly and massively corrupt. Both sides care more about killing Jews than helping Arabs.

(more…)

The fighting in Lebanon between the Lebanese army and Fatah al-Islam (a radical Sunni Islamist group) has been going on since May 20. Today,

In Nahr el-Bared, heavy fighting continued as the army pounded suspected militant hideouts with artillery shells and tank fire.The fighters responded with machinegun fire and rocket-propelled grenades, according to the officials…

The army was making progress toward Fatah Islam positions, the officials said. Witnesses also reported seeing a few Lebanese flags hoisted on the roofs of destroyed buildings inside the camp where the army appeared to be in control…

The use of Katyusha rockets appears to be a new tactic by the militants to ease the military pressure and expand the battles outside the camp. The militants fired at least six Katyusha rockets Saturday and 19 rockets on Friday that crashed into villages neighboring the camp, slightly injuring two people and causing damage to property. — Ha’aretz

The Lebanese have directed huge amounts of firepower at the terrorists (imagine if Israel did this!) but they continue to resist.

Where did they get Katyushas and launchers? Who is supplying them? Who benefits from their activities? Most observers seem to believe that Syria is behind them, but even the US and Saudi Arabia have been accused of supporting them (as an anti-Hezbollah force). Members seem to be Saudis, Syrians, Lebanese, Palestinians and various jihadists who had fought in Iraq. They may or may not be linked with al-Qaeda, but they appear to share its ideology.

The Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon are full of organizations like this, some more successful than others. There are more than 400,000 Palestinian refugees in Lebanon (overall, more than 4 million claim refugee status) and the locals don’t like them:

Lebanon barred Palestinians from 73 job categories including professions such as medicine, law and engineering. They are not allowed to own property. Unlike other foreigners in Lebanon, they are denied access to the Lebanese healthcare system. The Lebanese government refused to grant them work permits or permission to own land. — Wikipedia

The Arab nations as well as the Palestinian Fatah and Hamas groups continue to reject any solution to the refugee problem that is not a return to “their homes” in Israel. It would be ironic if the result of this policy is the destabilization of the host countries.

Technorati Tags: Fatah al-Islam, Lebanon