Obama Mideast policy soon to fall apart

July 19th, 2009

News item:

Top Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat on Sunday played down a recent meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki in Sharm el-Sheikh, wondering what all the fuss was about.

“We saw each other, it was just a regular meeting,” he said in a conversation with a reporter aired on Israel Radio, laughing off a suggestion that there was “normalization between Fatah and Iran…”

[But a senior Palestinian official], speaking on condition of anonymity, claimed that it was the first such meeting since the PA was established in 1994.

“They discussed the internal Palestinians situation and the need for successful negotiations between Hamas and Fatah,” he said.

The two also discussed “the need for a balance between Fatah and Hamas, the need for support of dialogue [between the two groups]… regional conditions and how to strike a balance in support between Hamas and Fatah,” he continued.

Fatah and Hamas have big differences. Fatah is nationalist and secular, while Hamas is Islamic fundamentalist. Hamas persecutes Christians and arrests women for ‘immodest’ dress, while the well-known Christian woman Hanan Ashrawi was at one point a member of Fatah. Hamas and Fatah fought brutally when Hamas took over the Gaza Strip in 2007, and today Fatah holds hundreds of Hamas men in its West Bank jails.

Fatah, the major faction in the PLO, controls the Palestinian Authority (PA). The US supports the PA as the legitimate Palestinian government, pays most of its bills and arms and trains its ‘security’ forces, although it is highly unpopular even on the West Bank. But the Obama Administration — like that of former President Bush — believes that Fatah is a ‘moderate’ force, which can be persuaded to be a partner with Israel in a peaceful two-state solution.

Unfortunately Fatah — the party of Yasser Arafat, which historically has killed more Israelis than Hamas — is moderate only in the minds of some wishfully thinking Western observers. Robert Fulford recently talked to Khaled Abu Toameh, the Jerusalem Post’s Arab Affairs correspondent:

Abu Toameh thinks neither [Fatah nor Hamas] could be called moderate by any sensible Arabic speaker. Fatah makes moderate sounds in English but in Arabic sounds as anti-Semitic and anti-American as Hamas. Abu Toameh sees no moderates on either side. Both factions suppress moderate opinion wherever it raises its head, which is apparently not often.

“This is not a power struggle between good guys and bad guys,” he said in a recent speech. “It is a struggle between bad guys and bad guys.” He wishes they were fighting over what would be best for Palestinians. “But they’re only fighting over money and power.” [my emphasis]

To a certain extent, this is a feature of Palestinian politics. Barry Rubin explains (see: “The peace recess“) that there simply is no percentage for a Palestinian leader in really being a moderate, as opposed to making some English statements designed to score propaganda points in the West. There is no popular support for moderation, and there are plenty of young men with guns — in Fatah as well as Hamas — who would quickly put an end to a moderate movement if there were one.

Present US policy seems to have two goals, one real and immediate and the other longer range and possibly more ‘for show’ than anything else.

The first is to win the approval of Muslim nations which claim to be alienated by our previous support of Israel, the war in Iraq, etc.  This is why the Administration has chosen to crudely bludgeon Israel over settlements and construction activity, and to agree with the PA that this is an obstacle to a peace settlement. The Arabs and Iran want to see the US ‘deliver’ Israel and that is the impression given by the settlement dispute.

The second goal is to gain popular support in the US and in Europe, by appearing to promote a peaceful two-state solution — although a peaceful end to the conflict is not possible without a moderate Palestinian partner, which doesn’t exist today. Even if some naive American officials believe that peace is possible in the short term, the important part is the process.

Unfortunately there is a real danger that — with the encouragement and support of Iran — the so-called ‘moderate’ Fatah and Hamas will soon paper over their differences and come together, something which would likely end up with the more vital Hamas gaining power over the PA. Hamas, while ideologically inflexible, acts in a pragmatic way, as is demonstrated by the radical Sunni organization’s alliance of convenience with Shiite Iran.

At this point, the Obama Administration will no longer be able to continue its charade of supporting the PA for the sake of peace, and the impending policy train wreck will occur — maybe along with another Israeli-Palestinian war.

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A failure to communicate

July 18th, 2009

Bahraini Crown Prince Shaikh Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa has written an opinion piece in the Washington Post which at first appears to be a genuine attempt to be reasonable.  He says,

This crisis is not a zero-sum game. For one side to win, the other does not have to lose. The peace dividend for the entire Middle East is potentially immense. So why have we not gotten anywhere?

Why indeed? One reason is that when you look at precisely what Khalifa says you see that he — like other Arab leaders — is not really interested in “resolving the dilemma of justice for Palestine without injustice to Israel”, in his words. Khalifa’s statement seems to be worlds away from the Three ‘No’s, — no  peace, no recognition and no negotiations — but careful reading shows how little the Arab world has moved since 1967.

Khalifa writes,

We need fresh thinking if the Arab Peace Initiative is to have the impact it deserves on the crisis that needlessly impoverishes Palestinians and endangers Israel’s security.

I certainly agree. The Arab initiative represents the first time the Arab world has said that under any circumstances they would agree to normalize relations with Israel (although there is some ambiguity about what ‘normalize’ means), and that’s significant. But it needs a bit of rethinking. This always brings the following joke to mind:

Man (to girlfriend): “Will you marry me?”
GF: “When Hell freezes over!”
Man (to himself): “Progress! There are some circumstances under which she’ll marry me.”

The main problem with the Arab initiative (also called the Saudi initiative since an early version was proposed by the Saudi king and later taken up by the Arab League) is that it is written to lay the entire responsibility for the conflict upon Israel.

After Israel accepts the Arab narrative of the conflict and responsibility for it, and meets all the Arab demands on such things as borders and refugees — one doubts that what would be left could still be called a Jewish state — then and only then the Arabs will normalize relations with it.

Note that Israel goes first — the Arabs are required to do nothing until Israel has made all the concessions demanded (this is in contrast to the Road Map, in which both sides must share the burdens in each step).

In addition, it is always presented in a take-it-or-leave-it fashion. The only negotiations connected with it will deal with ‘implementation’ — that is, Israel giving up all the 1967 territories, the establishment of the Palestinian state, and the ‘solution’ of the refugee problem.

In essence we have this:

  • The three ‘no’s of 1967: We won’t give you anything
  • The Arab initiative of today: We’ll give you something, after you surrender everything

You can see why it makes me nervous every time the Obama administration says something positive about the Arab initiative (as Hillary Clinton did this week).

“Fresh thinking” is definitely needed or this proposal is a nonstarter. So what does the Crown Prince suggest?

Our biggest mistake has been to assume that you can simply switch peace on like a light bulb. The reality is that peace is a process, contingent on a good idea but also requiring a great deal of campaigning — patiently and repeatedly targeting all relevant parties. This is where we as Arabs have not done enough to communicate directly with the people of Israel.

An Israeli might be forgiven for thinking that every Muslim voice is raised in hatred, because that is usually the only one he hears. Just as an Arab might be forgiven for thinking every Israeli wants the destruction of every Palestinian [but he doesn’t hear this from Israel — ed].

Essentially, we have not done a good enough job demonstrating to Israelis how our initiative can form part of a peace between equals in a troubled land holy to three great faiths…

To be effective, we must acknowledge that, like people everywhere, the average Israeli’s primary window on the world is his or her local and national media. Our job, therefore, is to tell our story more directly to the Israeli people by getting the message out to their media, a message reflecting the hopes of the Arab mainstream that confirms peace as a strategic option and advocates the Arab Peace Initiative as a means to this end.

In other words, there is no need to rethink the Arab initiative, only to sell it to skeptical Israelis.

“What we’ve got here,” the Crown Prince in effect tells us, “is a failure to communicate.”

No, it’s a lot more than that.

Paul Newman as Cool Hand Luke

“A failure to communicate” — Paul Newman as Cool Hand Luke

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Max Blumenthal’s antisemitic hit

July 17th, 2009

Max Blumenthal has another Youtube hit. This time in addition to the drunks of his previous video, he gets some young Israelis — whose command of English is not all that great, and who live in a country where the taboos of political correctness are not so entrenched  — to say unattractive things, which he gleefully splices together.

He asked a few apparently inebriated young men about the ‘Iranian people’, getting one to say “I hate them.” It’s obvious that the victim was thinking about the Iranian regime, but when you are drunk and speak English on a 5-year-old level it’s hard to be precise.  Blumenthal  also falsely implied that a so-called “nakba law … [makes] it a crime to talk about destroyed Arab villages”.

Then he found some Israeli Arab students (with better English) who talked about how they are discriminated against, having their ID’s checked just because they were Arab.

The thing is, this is so easy — imagine what he could do in any American college town, or among the Palestinians. The reporter sometimes even puts words in people’s mouths, as if it’s necessary.

What has Blumenthal done? He’s put together bits and pieces of video showing Jews in as ugly a light as possible. Imagine if he’d done the same for African Americans or Muslims! There is a word for this — antisemitism — and it is not a defense to claim that you are Jewish.

There are other words, too, like cheap shots, lack of context, yellow journalism, propaganda and just plain dishonesty.

Blumenthal would undoubtedly say that is is only anti-Zionist. But his video speaks for itself.

Max Blumenthal, the son of former President Clinton’s aide Sidney Blumenthal, was born in 1977. I’m sure that he went to an excellent university here in the US, unlike my own son who was born in the same year and who spent the same part of his youth in the dust and flies of South Lebanon trying to avoid Hezbollah’s mortar shells.

Unlike the Israelis that he made fools of, Blumenthal lives in a big country which does not have 60,000 [update 2014: 170,000] missiles aimed at it (from Hamas, Lebanon and Syria), which can hit any part of it. He does not live a few miles from a seething nest of violent hatred which from time to time randomly vomits rockets into his town, as many Israelis do. He does not live in range of a country ruled by a fanatical despot that will soon have nuclear bombs and has threatened repeatedly to annihilate his nation.

Blumenthal exemplifies the uninformed, privileged American Jews who hate Israel. Maybe it will take the shit hitting the fan for Jews in the US — after all, history shows that at some point it happens in every diaspora culture — for them to understand.

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US ‘engagement’ moves to Golan

July 16th, 2009

News item:

[Fredric C. Hof, a] top aide to George Mitchell, US President Barack Obama’s Middle East envoy, held talks with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem on Thursday in Damascus, in what could potentially be a bid to revive stalled peace talks between Syria and Israel…

Hof arrived in the region Sunday, and has met a host of senior military and defense officials in Israel, including Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon, and National Security Adviser Uzi Arad. He is also expected to meet with Syrian President Bashar Assad later in his trip.

Syria has insisted that the promise of an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights be a precursor to any renewed peace negotiations between the two countries. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has vehemently rejected the notion of a withdrawal.

More US ‘engagement’.

Do not think for a moment that this is in any way something that Israel wants or needs. Syria, today a satellite of Iran, served as the conduit for arms to Hezbollah before, during and after the 2006 war. With Iranian help, it has accumulated several tens of thousands of missiles, some with chemical warheads, which are pointed at Israel. In 2008, Syria even tried to build a nuclear reactor from North Korean components to produce weapons-grade plutonium, which Israel bombed. Syria is a major sponsor of Hezbollah an of Iraqi insurgents who are fighting US troops in that country.

Syria has a huge investment in war. If Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad or his late father had wanted the Golan back and had been prepared to make a peace agreement with Israel, they could have had it numerous times in the last two or three decades. Peace is not what they are looking for.

The Golan is highly strategic. Before 1967 Israeli towns and kibbutzim in the upper Jordan Valley were often bombarded from the heights. I personally saw a thick, pockmarked concrete wall in front of a kindergarten at Kibbutz Tel Katzir. Before it was built, the children were the targets of Syrian snipers on the Golan.

Control of the heights is absolutely vital for the defense of the area, and the key to any counterattack against Syria. If Israel had not held the heights in 1973, it’s likely that the Syrian army would have captured numerous Israeli population centers. To give an idea of what this would mean, in 1973 the bodies of captured Israeli soldiers were returned with their severed genitals stuffed in their mouths.

The return of the Golan to Syrian control under American pressure would be seen by the Arab world and Iran as another victory of the strategy of violent ‘resistance’. In this case the card that is undoubtedly being played is that of Syrian support to Iraqi insurgents, forcing the US to deliver Israel. ‘Success’ here would not lead to peace — the opposite would be true.

In any event, as Barry Rubin has argued, Syria’s eternal state of war with Israel meets important domestic needs for Assad — it helps him maintain repressive control of Islamist and reformist domestic opponents, as well as to keep control of the Syrian economy tightly inside the circle of his associates and relatives.

Part of the US conception is to offer Syria inducements — like the Golan — in return for Syria distancing herself from Iran, ending support for terrorism, etc. But again, these relationships meet important needs for Assad, such as providing influence in Lebanon and keeping the arms flowing — and these are things that the US is not in a position to provide.

Thus the danger is that Syria will get the Golan, seriously damaging Israel’s security, without actually changing its pro-Iranian orientation, ending support for terrorism in Lebanon and Iraq, or actually moving toward peace with Israel.

If I were Fred Hof, I would suggest that a first step for Mr. Assad would be to get rid of the missiles aimed at every part of Israel.

Then we could think about talking.

Wreckage of Syrian tank on Golan heights

Wreckage of Syrian tank on Golan heights. The settlement below it is Kibbutz Tel Katzir, mentioned in the text.

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Clinton speaks softly, carries no stick

July 15th, 2009

Hillary Clinton made a speech to the Council on Foreign relations today (the full text is here).

I really got a kick out of this paragraph. It is one of the best combinations of vacuous buzzwords stitched together seamlessly to say absolutely nothing that I have ever squandered eye-movements on reading. But I didn’t quote it for exercise — at the end of this post you’ll see that there really is something we can learn from it.

President Obama has led us to think outside the usual boundaries. He has launched a new era of engagement based on common interests, shared values, and mutual respect. Going forward, capitalizing on America’s unique strengths, we must advance those interests through partnership, and promote universal values through the power of our example and the empowerment of people. In this way, we can forge the global consensus required to defeat the threats, manage the dangers, and seize the opportunities of the 21st century. America will always be a world leader as long as we remain true to our ideals and embrace strategies that match the times. So we will exercise American leadership to build partnerships and solve problems that no nation can solve on its own, and we will pursue policies to mobilize more partners and deliver results.

Moving on to something very slightly more substantial, here is what she said about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict:

Now I’m well aware that time alone does not heal all wounds; consider the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. That’s why we wasted no time in starting an intensive effort on day one to realize the rights of Palestinians and Israelis to live in peace and security in two states, which is in America’s interests and the world’s. We’ve been working with the Israelis to deal with the issue of settlements, to ease the living conditions of Palestinians, and create circumstances that can lead to the establishment of a viable Palestinian state. For the last few decades, American administrations have held consistent positions on the settlement issue. And while we expect action from Israel, we recognize that these decisions are politically challenging.

Here Clinton referred to some of the concrete concessions that Israel has been asked — ordered — to make: the settlement freeze, removal of checkpoints and roadblocks, etc. She also implies, somewhat disingenuously, that the Obama position on settlements — that is, that there must be no building activity of any kind in the areas occupied by Jordan from 1948-67 — was shared by prior administrations. She continued,

And we know that progress toward peace cannot be the responsibility of the United States – or Israel – alone. Ending the conflict requires action on all sides. The Palestinians have the responsibility to improve and extend the positive actions already taken on security; to act forcefully against incitement; and to refrain from any action that would make meaningful negotiations less likely.

At last an admission from the administration that Palestinians need to make concessions, too. But “act forcefully against incitement”? This seems to imply that someone other than the Palestinian Authority is doing the incitement, and the PA should ‘act’ against it. But in fact, even today the official Palestinian media regularly presents vicious antisemitic material.

Contrast this with the painful actions being demanded of Israel. Better than a vague statement about acting forcefully, the PA should simply be told to stop the incitement, now. After all, the US is paying its bills.

Next she asks the Arab nations to take part of the burden. Will she be tougher on them?

And Arab states have a responsibility to support the Palestinian Authority with words and deeds, to take steps to improve relations with Israel, and to prepare their publics to embrace peace and accept Israel’s place in the region.

The Saudi peace proposal, supported by more than twenty nations, was a positive step. But we believe that more is needed. So we are asking those who embrace the proposal to take meaningful steps now. Anwar Sadat and King Hussein crossed important thresholds, and their boldness and vision mobilized peace constituencies in Israel and paved the way for lasting agreements. By providing support to the Palestinians and offering an opening, however modest, to the Israelis, the Arab states could have the same impact. So I say to all sides: Sending messages of peace is not enough. You must also act against the cultures of hate, intolerance and disrespect that perpetuate conflict.

Clinton begins with the obligatory praise for the Saudi Initiative, which I’ve argued was not positive at all, indeed just another Arab demand for Israel to commit suicide.  But then she mentions Anwar Sadat, the guy that practically defines ‘breakthrough’, and one expects that she will ask them to take real, dangerous but significant steps in the direction of peace.

Imagine the effect — on Israel, the Arabs, and the world –  if she had called for the Arab nations to recognize Israel as the state of the Jewish people.

Instead, having her ducks in a row she fails to pull the trigger, falling back on another lukewarm demand for the perpetrators to “act” against the crime, when instead they should be told to stop committing it.

Another issue of great interest to me, of course, was Iran. She said,

We watched the energy of Iran’s election with great admiration, only to be appalled by the manner in which the government used violence to quell the voices of the Iranian people, and then tried to hide its actions by arresting foreign journalists and nationals, and expelling them, and cutting off access to technology. As we and our G-8 partners have made clear, these actions are deplorable and unacceptable.

But there were no consequences, were there?  One imagines Ahmadinejad asking how many divisions the G-8 has!

We know very well what we inherited with Iran, because we deal with that inheritance every day. We know that refusing to deal with the Islamic Republic has not succeeded in altering the Iranian march toward a nuclear weapon, reducing Iranian support for terror, or improving Iran’s treatment of its citizens.

Neither the President nor I have any illusions that dialogue with the Islamic Republic will guarantee success of any kind, and the prospects have certainly shifted in the weeks following the election. But we also understand the importance of offering to engage Iran and giving its leaders a clear choice: whether to join the international community as a responsible member or to continue down a path to further isolation.

Direct talks provide the best vehicle for presenting and explaining that choice. That is why we offered Iran’s leaders an unmistakable opportunity: Iran does not have a right to nuclear military capacity, and we’re determined to prevent that. But it does have a right to civil nuclear power if it reestablishes the confidence of the international community that it will use its programs exclusively for peaceful purposes.

It seems to me that they already have been given options, by the UN, and they decided that they would rather continue with their nuclear program and let the UN do its worst. But the UN’s worst wasn’t very bad, and its offer of economic incentives wasn’t very good, so Iran decided that they would rather make enriched uranium, thank you.  What, exactly, will Obama do differently?

Iran can become a constructive actor in the region if it stops threatening its neighbors and supporting terrorism. It can assume a responsible position in the international community if it fulfills its obligations on human rights. The choice is clear. We remain ready to engage with Iran, but the time for action is now. The opportunity will not remain open indefinitely.

But why would Iran want to do these things when it is gaining control and influence in the region through its support of Hezbollah and subversion of Iraq, which will become an Iranian satellite as soon as US troops are gone? Why would it want to stop its nuclear program when possession of a bomb would give it even more power, plus the ability to become the great hero of the Muslim world by finally defeating Israel? What inducement can Obama offer it when it can achieve all of its goals by staying on the path it has chosen?

About Afghanistan:

In Afghanistan and Pakistan, our goal is to disrupt, dismantle, and ultimately defeat al-Qaida and its extremist allies, and to prevent their return to either country. Yet Americans often ask, why do we ask our young men and women to risk their lives in Afghanistan when al-Qaida’s leadership is in neighboring Pakistan? And that question deserves a good answer: We and our allies fight in Afghanistan because the Taliban protects al-Qaida and depends on it for support, sometimes coordinating activities. In other words, to eliminate al-Qaida, we must also fight the Taliban.

I think the question is, “why don’t we go after al-Qaeda wherever they are, including Pakistan?”

Now, we understand that not all those who fight with the Taliban support al-Qaida, or believe in the extremist policies the Taliban pursued when in power. And today we and our Afghan allies stand ready to welcome anyone supporting the Taliban who renounces al-Qaida, lays down their arms, and is willing to participate in the free and open society that is enshrined in the Afghan Constitution.

So actually, we are not against the Taliban, as long as they are pacifist, feminist Taliban who go over to our side. It’s really hard to understand why she needed to say this.

Now here is why I quoted that first, apparently meaningless paragraph. It illustrates what I believe is a fundamental problem with this administration:

Mr. Obama, arguably the best American political speaker since JFK and MLK, managed to talk himself into the Presidency. He, Mrs. Clinton and others are therefore dazzled by the power of talk and seem to think that any problem is amenable to it. Of course this is not the case, especially in the Middle East.

Talk and fuzzy platitudes about cooperation, partnerships, empowerment, etc. are cheap and in plentiful supply.

Moral strength and fact-based policies apparently aren’t.

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