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The publication of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), and — more importantly — the spin placed on the statement therein that “in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program”, has encouraged Iran to continue its enrichment of uranium and has reduced the possibility of effective international sanctions.

In the international scene, Russia’s decision to renew fuel shipments to Iran main nuclear facility at Bushehr was interpreted by many anlysts as stemming directly from the NIE’s publication; another development possibly stemming from the report is Russia and China’s hardened position on further sanctions against Teheran.

In Teheran, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was quick to capitalize on the NIE, calling it an “Iranian victory” and demanding that the United States publicly apologize for its previous bellicose stance. — Jerusalem Post

As I have written, reading past the first sentence in the NIE makes it clear that the intelligence community’s estimation of the Iranian potential to make nuclear weapons has not changed much, if at all.

However, politically — in both the international and domestic arenas — the statement is highly significant. Unless it’s a trick to distract the Iranians while we plan to bomb them (doubtful), it sends the message that the US does not plan to interfere militarily in the Iranian program. And this message has obviously been received loud and clear in Moscow, Beijing, and Teheran.

Today, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said

On Iran, I continue to say that if Iran will just do the one thing that is required of it by the Security Council resolutions that have been passed — and that is suspend its enrichment and reprocessing activities — then I’m prepared to meet my counterpart any place and anytime and anywhere and we can talk about anything… — AP

Of course Iran does not need to worry about resolutions which are not likely to be enforced, but note also that she did not even mention nuclear weapons.

One can speculate about why the US has taken the military option off the table. Some possibilities are

• we have been deterred by the probable Iranian response, both against our troops, ships, and installations in the region and in the form of terrorism against Americans in the US and elsewhere; and

• we have been encouraged by secret Iranian promises to take the heat off in Iraq.

Probably, the answer is a bit of both. I also think our policymakers think that a direct nuclear threat from Iran against the US is far in the future, and can be deterred by a promise of massive retaliation.

For Israel the question is much sharper. Israeli planners see a world with Iranian nuclear weapons as a world without Israel.

The consequence of the NIE is that both US pressure and international sanctions are less likely to prevent Iran from achieving its goal. Therefore, the possibility that Israel will at some point find her red line crossed and wil attack Iran is much greater.

Some argue that this can’t happen because Israel doesn’t have the capability, because Israel can’t risk the Iranian (and Syrian) response, because the US is unlikely to give the ‘green light’, etc.

But in a life or death situation, even the most dangerous course of action is better than doing nothing.

Technorati Tags: Iran, Israel, NIE

From the people who gave us the Danish Cartoon Riots and the Teddy Bear Affair:

(IsraelNN.com) Jewish worshippers Tuesday were stunned to find Arabs had desecrated the graves of the Biblical Joshua, Caleb and Nun (Joshua’s father).

Joshua served as the Jewish Nation’s Prime Minister from the year 2488 until 2516 on the Hebrew calendar (1272 BCE – 1300 BCE).

Members of the One Shechem organization that organizes visits to the graves arrived in the village of Timnat (Kifl) Haress, near Ariel in Samaria, to prepare for a special prayer gathering, discovered that Arab vandals had desecrated the village’s Jewish tombs. The tombs of Yehoshua (Joshua) ben Nun, Nun, and Calev (Caleb) ben Yefuneh were covered with garbage and feces – both human and animal, and anti-Semitic and Nazi slogans and symbols had been painted in the area.

Israel of course has gone out of her way to protect Muslim holy sites. How do you think the Arabs would treat ours if they had control of East Jerusalem?

That’s right. Like they did in 1948-67, like Joseph’s tomb in 2000, and like the graves of Joshua, Nun, and Caleb this week.

Technorati Tags: Arabs, Joshua, Caleb, Nun

Another idea that misses the point:

The mechanism for an international security presence in the Gaza Strip “could be devised quickly” if Israel and the Palestinians reach an agreement on the matter, EU Middle East envoy Marc Otte told The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday.

Otte said there is “definitely more interest than in the past” for the idea from both the Israeli and Palestinian sides…

Hamas spokesmen, however, have said consistently they would oppose any international force and view it as an occupier no different than Israel. — Jerusalem Post

A UN or NATO force in Gaza would be a decidedly mixed blessing — or worse. For one thing, Israel would be severely limited in her ability to strike at terrorists who launch rockets into Israel. And even if the force were highly motivated to do so, stopping the terrorists from launching would be very, very difficult.

It would certainly put an end to the possibility of a massive Israeli invasion. It might reduce the tunneling and explosive-planting activities of Hamas near the border fence with Israel, but on the other hand would give Hamas a respite from Israeli attacks in which they could continue to build up their forces, manufacture rockets, smuggle supplies, etc.

Since the force would have to communicate with Hamas, this would provide Hamas some degree of legitimacy.

Hamas is an outlaw organization, using terrorism as policy and making war on a legitimate UN member state, Israel. I suppose that in an ideal world with a real UN, the international policemen would simply step in and arrest the leaders of a criminal, murderous, genocidal gang like Hamas. But that isn’t the world we live in.

Meanwhile, Gaza terrorists are hurting from recent Israeli air strikes that have killed 13 Islamic Jihad and Hamas guerrillas in the past few days. Gaza Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh has suggested that Hamas and Israel should negotiate a hudna, a temporary truce, in which Hamas would stop the rocket fire and Israel the air attacks.

Israeli President Shimon Peres, not usually my favorite guy, made eminent sense when he pointed out in response that all Hamas has to do is stop the rockets and Israel will stop the air attacks — no negotiation required or desired.

Since the IAF is so much more accurate than Palestinian rockets, perhaps the best outcome would be for the present situation to continue unchanged for a while, until the terrorist factions in Gaza are decimated.

Technorati Tags: Israel, Hamas, Gaza

Foreign donors have just pledged $7.4 billion in aid to the Palestinian Authority. This is intended to ameliorate poverty, build infrastructure, and ultimately reduce violence.

How has this strategy worked in the past? Steven Stotsky, writing for CAMERA, presents a picture that is not terribly encouraging. It seems that homicides by Palestinians, both in terrorism against Israelis and in factional fighting are closely correlated to aid given to the Palestinian Authority.

The following graph plots the number of Israelis and Palestinians killed by Palestinian terrorists and the amount of aid received by the PA from 2000 – 2007. The murder data is shown for the year after the aid was received, in which the correlation is almost perfect.

The going rate seems to be about one murder for every $1.2 million. At this rate, we can expect nearly 6200 murders for our $7.4 billion.

Does this prove anything? Of course not. There are lots of reasons for the ups and downs in Palestinian productivity, and foreign aid is only one of them.

As is often said, “Past performance is no guarantee of future results”, but it certainly helps to evaluate an investment.

Technorati Tags: terrorism, Palestinians

As stated, the US plan to ‘solve’ the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by forcing the creation of a Palestinian state run by Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah faction is absurd.

It’s not possible for Israel to make peace with the Palestinians by making peace with Fatah, since about 36% of the ‘Palestinians’ live under Hamas in Gaza.

The ‘two-state solution’ envisions a peaceful Palestinian state alongside Israel; a state with an economy that can ultimately provide for its citizens. It is for this that international donors just pledged $7.4 billion.

It is hard enough to imagine a Palestinian leadership which will break with the tradition of using aid to enrich itself and to finance war against Israel, and actually try to develop a functioning nation. But it is impossible to imagine that this nation can be made of just the West Bank.

If there is going to be a Palestinian state, it has to include both the West Bank and Gaza. And that means that something has to change with regard to Hamas, which has the allegiance of a large number of Palestinians and indeed won a democratic election.

Either Hamas has to disappear, which is impossible, or it must join with other factions in creating some kind of unified Palestinian entity. And in fact, this is what Egypt and Saudi Arabia are trying to make happen.

This week, Hamas politburo chief Khaled Meshaal met with top Saudi officials and updated them on the latest efforts to end the rift between the two largest Palestinian political movements.

According to Hamas officials in Gaza, Meshaal presented to the Saudi leadership “a comprehensive package of proposals” that would rectify the current state of division. The proposals include a willingness on Hamas’s part to hand over “security headquarters” and “a number of civilian ministries” in the Gaza Strip to Fatah, which would be followed by the creation of a national unity government based on the Saudi-mediated Mecca Accord as well as the National Reconciliation Document.

Meshaal reportedly asked the Saudi leadership to exert pressure on Fatah’s leadership, especially Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Mahmoud Abbas, who visited Riyadh last week and briefed Saudi King Abdullah on developments pertaining to the Annapolis conference.

Similarly, Egypt has asked both Hamas and Fatah to dispatch delegations to Cairo after the Eid Al-Adha holiday — which comes 18 December — in an effort to end the inter- Palestinian schism. It is not certain if Egyptian and Saudi efforts are being coordinated. — Al-Ahrahm [Cairo]

Meanwhile, the US is rapidly pushing Israel into giving up security, land and sovereignty to the Fatah faction, while arming them (to “fight terrorism”, of course). But the Fatah leadership has as yet shown no desire or ability to control their own al-Aqsa Brigade terrorists; what will they do joined with Hamas (or as a junior partner)?

Is seems as though the US wants to see Israel reduced to pre-1967 borders and surrounded by aggressive terrorist enclaves or hostile powers to the North, East, and Southwest.

If the goal were long-term stability in the region, one would think that the way to attain this would involve weakening the elements that plan war and support terrorism. Yet we are rewarding them, and even encouraging the tactic of terrorism by preventing Israel from responding severely (e.g., in Gaza) while demanding security concessions. And we are weakening Israel which does have an interest in coexistence.

I’m afraid that all the talk from the US about the peaceful Palestinian state alongside Israel is just an attempt to defuse opposition from Israel supporters. So what are we trying to do?

My assessment is that US policymakers believe that they can appease the anti-Israel ‘activists’ (Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia) among the Arabs for as long as it takes to escape from Iraq without going quite far enough to allow Israel to be destroyed. Once this is accomplished, the Palestinians will be left to their street-gang politics.

Note that nobody — particularly not Iran or the Arab nations and not the US — gives a fig about the Palestinians as anything other than a tool to accomplish their own ends. I can pretty much guarantee that no matter how this turns out for Israel, things will continue to be bad for most Palestinians.

Technorati Tags: Israel, Fatah, Hamas