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Paradoxically, the talk about possible war between Israel and Syria has been mixed with suggestions that a peace deal might be possible:

JERUSALEM, June 8 (Reuters) – Israel has told Syria it is willing to trade land for peace and is waiting to hear whether President Bashar al-Assad would cut ties with Iran and hostile guerrilla groups in return, Israeli officials said on Friday.

One said Syrian officials had so far indicated a willingness to conduct discreet contacts that might lead to a resumption of formal peace talks after a seven-year hiatus. In two weeks, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is due to meet U.S. President George W. Bush, who would play a crucial role in any such process.

Israel may well talk to Syria because it does not wish to miss (or be perceived as rejecting) any opportunity for peace. But although Assad would certainly like the Golan back, In an interview with Michael J. Totten, Barry Rubin, author of The Truth About Syria, thinks that it is unlikely that he wants it in the framework of a peace agreement:

It is commonplace to say that Syria wants back the Golan Heights. But one need merely ask the simple question: what happens if Syria gets it back? If Syria’s regime made peace with Israel it has no excuse for having a big military, a dictatorship, and a terrible economy. The day after the deal the Syrian people will start demanding change. The regime knows that.

Indeed, Rubin sees Syria’s leadership as heavily invested in quite the opposite of peace:

While the Syrian regime poses as being desirous of peace and engagement with the West, in fact its institutions, ideology, propaganda, and activities go in the exact opposite direction. To survive, the minority-dominated, dictatorial, and economically incompetent government needs radicalism, control over Lebanon, regional instability, anti-Americanism, and using Israel as a scapegoat.

Syria is sponsoring a terror war against Iraqi civilians and American forces in Iraq; it is subverting Lebanon, not even stopping at killing the most popular political leaders there; playing the leading role in being the patron of radical Palestinian forces against Israel; promoting anti-Americanism; formulating the new “resistance” strategy which combines radical Arab nationalism and Islamism; being Iran’s main Arab ally; and even being the main Arab state sponsor of revolutionary Islamism.

American plans to drive a wedge between Syria and Iran — which may include awarding the Golan to Syria — are not likely to be successful, says Rubin, because there is little we can offer the regime compared to Iran:

Iran supplies Syria with a strategic ally and protector, a lot of money, an Islamist and Islamic cover, and much more. The two countries may not have identical interests but they are close: making Iraq into a member of their alliance; dominating Lebanon; driving out U.S. and Western influence; destroying Israel; backing Hizballah and Hamas; and so on. What can the West possibly offer Syria to replace that? High-tech military weapons? Lebanon and Iraq as satellites? To discuss the issues is to show how ridiculous the idea of splitting the alliance is in practice.

The whole Totten interview is worth reading (and probably so is Rubin’s book).

Technorati Tags: Israel, Syria, Rubin

Hizbullah in Lebanon continues to rearm:

Lebanese troops have seized a truckload of rockets and ammunition belonging to the Hizbullah guerrillas in eastern Lebanon, security officials said Wednesday.

The shipment of Grad rockets and ammunition for automatic rifles and machine guns was seized late Tuesday at a random army checkpoint near the town of Baalbek, a stronghold for the Shi’ite Muslim militant group.

Six Hizbullah members in the truck were let go but the confiscated weapons were taken to army barracks nearby. — Jerusalem Post

Here is a Russian-made BM-21 Grad rocket launcher (sometimes incorrectly called ‘Katyusha’, which was an earlier version, dating back to WWII). It is capable of firing 40 122mm rockets in 20 seconds, striking targets up to 32 km away (20 miles, varies with rocket type). Once loaded, the launcher can be driven to the launch location where it can be prepared and fired in seconds, and then quickly removed to a hiding place. While Israel destroyed quite a number of these from the air during the war last summer, it’s not easy to catch them and even harder to do it before they launch.

The US and Israel are developing laser-type weapons to destroy these rockets in the air. An American system is available and expensive. Israel has not deployed any such system as yet, as far as I know.

The Grad rocket is 9 feet long and can deliver a 45-pound payload. It can be used to deliver explosives or chemical weapons. Although it’s old technology, it’s still deadly and — because of the lack of countermeasures — represents one of Hizbullah’s greatest threats.

Technorati Tags: Hizbullah, Grad rocket

I’ve written before about the possibility of war between Israel and Syria. It seemed to me that neither side wants a direct conflict, although a proxy war involving Hezbollah and Hamas with Syrian support is likely.

There’s another option that I did not discuss, the case of an accidental war, or what I like to call a ‘war of incompetence’ which neither side wants. Because there is a great advantage to the side that strikes first, all that’s necessary to trigger hostilities is the belief on one side that the other is about to attack. And incompetence is in generous supply on both sides.

The recent Syrian buildup near the border is dangerous because it reduces the warning time that Israel would have in the event of an actual Syrian attack, thus raising the likelihood of an Israeli preemption.

Here’s what Daniel Pipes says about the situation:

The talk of war and negotiations simultaneously points to the extraordinary instability and fluidity these days of Syrian-Israeli relations. Under severe pressure for his government’s and perhaps his personal role in the murder of Rafiq al-Hariri, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad is desperately trying to change the subject. But his ambivalence in not knowing whether to change it to war or peace showcases his limitations as a leader. As I keep saying, let’s hope he was a better ophthalmologist than he is a dictator.

As for Ehud Olmert, he proved himself to be such a terrible military chief last year in Lebanon that a Syrian intifada on the Golan Heights now looms as a real possibility. And his severe political unpopularity makes him receptive to negotiations that a stronger Israeli prime minister would scorn.

This unusual combination of circumstances makes the Damascus-Jerusalem confrontation unusually volatile. Incompetence has a way of generating unpredictability. I cannot assess the chances of war beyond saying they are worrisomely real.

Technorati Tags: Israel, Syria, Daniel Pipes

Here we go again:

High-ranking defense officials told the Post Wednesday that security chiefs in Abbas’s office passed on a “weapons shopping list” to Gen. Keith Dayton, the US security coordinator to Israel and the Gaza Strip, in the middle of May, asking for millions of bullets and thousands of rifle magazines, hand grenades and Kalashnikov automatic rifles.

The officials said Dayton then passed the list on to the Egyptians, who would need to provide the arms and ammunition, as well as to Israel’s Defense Ministry, which would need to authorize the transfer.

The defense officials said that Dayton personally recommended that Israel permit the weapons supply…

Israeli officials stressed that the weapons would not be transferred by Israel to the PA. “We do not physically supply the Palestinians with weapons,” an official in Defense Minister Amir Peretz’s office said. “We just allow it to happen.”– Jerusalem Post

Why this is dumb:

• It won’t work. Fatah can’t defeat Hamas because Fatah’s people are not as well motivated as Hamas’ people. It doesn’t depend on how many bullets they have. Both sides have more than enough already.

• The weapons will sooner or later end up in the hands of Hamas. The Fatah people will sell them, Hamas will take them, or the Fatah people will become Hamas people. All these things have already happened.

• Fatah is also an anti-Israel terrorist group. Didn’t Israel learn this in the Oslo period?

Technorati Tags: Israel, Fatah, Hamas