Archive for October, 2007

‘Realists’ want US to tilt toward Israel’s enemies

Wednesday, October 10th, 2007

The anti-Israel ‘realists’ are at it again, this time with a letter to President Bush, which will be released later today, that will call for engagement with Hamas and a tilt towards Syria in an attempt to ‘solve’ the Israeli-Arab conflict.

Signers include former National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft, former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, former US Trade Representative Carla Hills, Former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs and US Ambassador to Russia Thomas Pickering, former Senator Nancy Kassebaum Baker, former House International Relations Committee Chairman Lee Hamilton, former Counselor to President Kennedy Theodore Sorensen, and former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Paul Volcker.

In the letter to Bush, beyond calling on the US and the parties to focus on the outlines of a final status settlement, the co-signatories defy the administration’s views by calling for an end to the policy of isolating Hamas and for a shift in policy toward Syria — including both US/Syria engagement and renewal of Syrian/Israeli negotiations. — Steven Clemons, The Washington Note

Both of these policies would be disastrous for Israel, and for any moderate elements among the Palestinians (if there are any left).

Hamas could have ended its isolation (in other words, gotten huge amounts of financial aid from the West and become part — and ultimately the controlling part, of the official Palestinian Authority) simply by accepting Israel’s right to exist, renouncing terrorism, and accepting prior agreements between Israel and the PA. Note that this formula says nothing about the borders of Israel, Palestinian refugees, etc. But they have never been prepared to do this, preferring an outlaw existence funded by Iran and radical elements in the Muslim world which permits them to maintain their rejectionist stance toward Israel and their genocidal position about Jews.

Granting them recognition legitimizes this position and provides yet more evidence that terrorism is the best path to political legitimacy. It also strengthens Iranian influence in the region.

Syria could have had the Golan heights in return for a peace agreement at multiple times since 1999. They have never chosen this path, because the continued conflict with Israel has more important to the Assad regimes (first Hafez and now his son Bashar) as a tool to keep internal reformers at bay and maintain influence over Lebanon than possession of the Golan (see Lee Harris’ review of Barry Rubin’s “The Truth About Syria” for an in-depth discussion of Syrian motives).

Syria today is working with Iran to support Hamas and Hezbollah, helping Iraqi insurgents kill Americans, threatening war with Israel over the Golan (which Israel would give her in return for a peace treaty), and murdering anti-Syrian Lebanese politicians. They also have a huge arsenal of chemical weapons, and are apparently trying to obtain nuclear material from North Korea. Should American policy become more or less pro-Syrian?

Ami Isseroff writes,

The people who participated in this letter are either fools or knaves [they are knaves — ed.]. A few may be so clueless that they don’t really understand what Hamas is all about, and think that Hamas can be “converted” into a peaceful movement. Likewise, they believe Bashar Assad is just another politician taking care of business. The rest are “realists” who would have no compunction about assisting in the elimination of Israel, which they believe is an “unviable client state” and a foreign policy liability. In Machiavellian calculations of realpolitik, considerations of morality and sentiment are irrelevant.

Some of these knaves are influential people. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Jimmy Carter’s former National Security Advisor, is the foreign policy advisor to presidential hopeful Barak Obama.

This is a really bad idea which needs to die quietly.

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A surrender agreement

Monday, October 8th, 2007

Benjamin NetanyahuSecret negotiations regarding a ‘peace’ agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority (as represented by Mahmoud Abbas) are continuing, and so are leaks about what is being offered. Jerusalem will somehow be divided, much of the West Bank will come under Palestinian control, and something — no-one knows for sure what — will be done in regard to the descendants of Palestinian refugees.

The problem is that Abbas has absolutely no ability to deliver anything in return from the Palestinians, and even less from the other parties in the conflict. Even if he wanted to, which is in dispute, he cannot prevent terrorism from areas which are not under IDF control, and he cannot prevent a Hamas takeover there either.

So while opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu can list all of the likely consequences of the planned concessions, nobody can tell us how Abbas or anyone else can guarantee — or even make likely — any kind of peace afterwards.

Indeed, based on Palestinian reactions to previous concessions, we can expect the opposite.

In addition, supposing that such a deal is made, will Iran agree that Israel can be allowed to exist? Will Hezbollah stop preparing for another rocket war? Will Syria stand down her chemical-warhead tipped missiles? Will Hamas stop its arms smuggling, rocket firing, and war preparations?

A peace agreement would be a two-sided deal, with both sides making concessions and some kind of guarantee that there would be peace. What is being talked about is something different entirely:

A surrender agreement.

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Gaza terrorists get better rockets

Sunday, October 7th, 2007

A Katyusha rocket has landed in Netivot, near the Gaza strip:

The rocket, one of four to land in the western Negev, was the first to land in the Netivot area since Palestinian terrorists started firing rockets at Israel.

Defense officials said that the rocket was Russian-made and had a range of 20 kilometers.

No one was wounded and no damage was reported as a result of the rocket barrage.

Netivot Mayor Yehiel Zohar said that his request to fortify the town’s education institutions was turned down since Netivot is located 11 kilometers from the Gaza Strip – one kilometer outside the area that qualifies for fortification. — Jerusalem Post

Netivot is a small town. The city of Ashkelon (population 117,000), however, is even closer to the Gaza strip, and has a port and industrial installations. Some Qassams have already struck it, but so far have not done too much damage. Katyushas, with longer range, better accuracy, and larger payloads, would be another story.

I assume they are being smuggled in via the arms superhighway under the Egyptian border. There will come a point that Israel will be forced to take action. I hope it won’t have to be prompted by a major casualty event.

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Turks threaten Jews, Israel, over Armenian Genocide resolution

Saturday, October 6th, 2007

Turkish FM Ali BabacanIt’s hard to understand this as anything other than a threat:

The passage of a resolution in the US Congress supporting Armenian claims of genocide at the hands of the late Ottoman Empire will irreparably damage the image of the United States and make the Jewish population a target of criticism in Turkey, Foreign Minister and Chief EU Negotiator Ali Babacan has said…

An influential US Jewish group, the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), recently reversed its longtime position and declared killings of Armenians in eastern Anatolia during the World War I years to be genocide. The ADL says it [still] remains opposed to the Congress [sic] resolution because history should be left to historians and not politicians…

Babacan said if the resolution is passed in Congress, the Jewish population will inevitably be the target of public anger in Turkey. He said Turkish officials have told the ADL and other US Jewish groups in recent talks that the widespread perception in Turkey would be that “Armenian and Jewish lobbies unite forces against Turks.” He said: “We have told them that we cannot explain it to the public in Turkey if a road accident happens. We have told them that we cannot keep the Jewish people out of this.” — Today’s Zaman [Turkish English-language newspaper] [my emphasis]

The ADL had originally refused to say that genocide had taken place. But many Jews believe strongly that the Armenian Genocide is a matter of historical fact, and that it is morally unacceptable for Jews, of all people, to deny it. The ADL, under pressure from Jews, Armenians, and even its own employees, finally did backtrack to some extent, although its statement was far from unequivocal.

It seemed to me at the time that the ADL — although its position on the Genocide was wrong — was motivated by fear of the consequences for Turkish Jews.

Now the Turkish Foreign Minister has hinted that the Jews would suffer if the resolution is passed, and he suggests that the Turkish government would be powerless to prevent an antisemitic reaction by the Turkish public in that case!

This is complicated also by the pressure that Turkey is expected to apply via Israel:

Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan is scheduled to arrive in Israel on Sunday following a brief visit to Damascus. High on his agenda in Jerusalem will be Israel’s air strike on Syria last month and the American Jewish community’s stand on whether the World War I killing of Armenians constituted genocide…

Turkish media reports have said Babacan is expected to play a mediating role between Syria and Israel. If so, he has his work cut out for him, as A-Baath, the official newspaper of President Bashar Assad’s government, warned Saturday that Syria would not hesitate to start a war with Israel to restore its control over the Golan Heights…

Alongside Syria, Babacan is expected to talk with his Israeli interlocutors about legislation that will come before the US House Foreign Affairs Committee on Wednesday that would declare the World War I era killings of Armenians a genocide. — Jerusalem Post

I presume that Babacan intends to explain to the Israelis how Israeli interests will suffer as a result of the behavior of the ADL, which the Turks — who understand nothing about Jews, the US, or democracy — incorrectly believe to be an agent of the Israeli government.

The ADL will not make another about-face. American Jews massively support the genocide resolution and will not change their position. I would like to believe that the Turks will not behave as antisemitic bullies.

Update [10 Oct 2153 PDT]: The House Foreign Relations Committee has voted to approve the resolution. If it is passed by the full House, it is expected to cause serious strains in the relationship between the US and Turkey.

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What the Palestinians really want

Saturday, October 6th, 2007

If you want an honest statement of the Palestinian position free of the usual posturing, look no further:

In a letter to [Palestinian President Mahmoud] Abbas, Salman Abu Sitta, a prominent spokesman for Palestinian refugees, wrote: “We are aware of the pressure you are facing to abandon the Palestinian position and endorse Israel’s vision. But what has drawn our attention more than anything else is Israel’s attempt to redefine the idea of the two-state solution. Israel now wants mutual recognition – Israel as the national homeland of the Jews and, on what’s left of the land, Palestine as the national homeland of the Palestinians.”

Abu Sitta described the Israeli formula as “extremely dangerous,” saying it should be rejected by all Arabs. He said accepting this formula would be tantamount to abandoning the Arab right to Palestine and accepting the Jews’ ostensible historical and biblical rights to the land.

In addition, Abu Sitta argued, the Israeli stance abolishes the right of return for Palestinians on two levels: recognition of this right and its fulfillment.

“This would constitute a historic burden; no Palestinian could bear its consequences in front of his people and history,” he cautioned. He said it was inconceivable that the Palestinians would abandon the right of return after decades of fighting. — Khaled Abu Toameh, Jerusalem Post [my emphasis]

And all this time, proponents of a two-state solution have been arguing that the problem is that the correct formula for compromise hasn’t been found yet. They suggest that the Clinton-Barak proposals failed because Israel did not offer enough or because Arafat wasn’t ready for peace.

The real problem is that Israelis and Americans have never really paid attention to what Palestinians say, or have never believed that they actually meant it.

The Palestinians believe a false version of history. They are wrong about the connection of the Jews to the land, they are wrong about the history of the 19th and 20th centuries, and they are especially wrong about their understanding of the events of 1948.

In addition to being mistaken about what actually happened, they are totally blind to their own agency in bringing about their situation. They don’t take responsibility for the actions of al-Husseini (the Nazi Mufti of Jerusalem), Yasser Arafat, Hamas, or any number of murderers and terrorists.

But never mind, this is the version of reality that they believe, with the passion that only a truly miserable people can muster. And this misery has been carefully nurtured over the years by the Arab nations, the UNRWA which was created just for this purpose (and mostly paid for by the US), and the sympathetic international Left which has adopted their cause.

So they have never been, and are not now, willing to accept a compromise solution that leaves room for a Jewish state.

But this should not be Israel’s problem. Why should Israel have to pay for the perfidy of the British and French, the stupidity of al-Husseini, the evil and corruption of Arafat, the grandiose plans of Nasser, the machinations of the Assads, and the fact that the Palestinians have been lied to so thoroughly by themselves and others?

The responsibility for solving the problems of the descendants of the Arab refugees of 1948 should fall on those who really created and perpetuated the problem. Since the UN has entire departments and ‘divisions’ dedicated to Palestinian rights, since it has had several ‘human rights’ bodies that dealt with little else, maybe it could come up with an answer.

Such a solution would involve the abolition of UNRWA, compensation for the treatment these people have received from their ‘host’ nations since 1948, education and job-training programs, and finally resettlement in the host nations or ‘Palestine’ if such an entity is ultimately created — which of course will ultimately be up to the Palestinians themselves.

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