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Doesn’t it strike you as wholly evil when great powers chop up a smaller sovereign state and hand parts of it over to genocidal maniacs, in order to advance their own interests?

The paradigm case was the Munich agreement in 1938, where the British and French agreed to give a piece of Czechoslovakia to Hitler, hoping to satisfy him and forestall war. They didn’t ask the Czechs, of course.

Now apparently the US and Europe plan to do the same to Israel.

The following appeared in Ha’aretz:

Negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians will resume next month on the basis of an understanding that the establishment of a Palestinian state will be officially announced in two years.

Palestinian and European Union sources told Haaretz that talks will initially focus on determining the permanent border between Israel and the West Bank…

It is understood that this will be accompanied by a public American and European declaration that the permanent border will be based on the border of June 4, 1967. Both sides may agree to alter the border based on territorial exchanges.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal to discuss Jerusalem and the Palestinian refugees in the initial negotiation stages will not be allowed to delay the announcement of an independent Palestinian state.

Likewise, Netanyahu’s demand that the Palestinians recognize Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people, and that the Arab world embark on normalizing ties with Israel, will not constitute preconditions to an “early recognition” of Palestine.

In other words, the intention is that Israel will withdraw to the pre-1967 border in two years and the wishes of her government in the matter will be ignored. It is not clear what will happen to the 300,000 or so Israelis living east of the border (500,000 if you count East Jerusalem) if Israel and the Palestinian Authority can’t agree on border modifications. And agreement isn’t likely, judging by the fact that the PA has never budged on its demand for “not one centimeter less” than that border.

Further, the amputation will take place regardless of whether the Palestinians and the rest of the Arab world will give up their desire to resettle millions of hostile ‘refugees’ in Israel or will agree to end the conflict — for this is what recognizing Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish People means.

Keep in mind that the Palestinian Authority will almost certainly include Hamas by the time this happens, so my use of the phrase ‘genocidal maniacs’ is quite appropriate.

The analogy to Munich is close, in that this agreement will bring war, not peace.

In truth, the imposed settlement will be morally worse than Munich. Chamberlain and Daladier were probably naive about Hitler’s intentions, believing that their actions would prevent war. The Europeans and the US State Department, on the other hand, understand quite well what the Arabs want.

This is not being done for peace and not for the Palestinians. It is being done for business reasons, and because craven Western leaders are scared to death of the potential for anti-Western terrorism that could be unleashed by the barbaric Arab nations and Iran.

Technorati Tags: Israel, Palestinian Authority, Israeli-Arab conflict

I recently had a daytime nightmare. A horrific vision of what could happen if events proceeded along a not-unlikely course. But there are no nuclear explosions in my nightmare. It doesn’t end with a bang…

It’s August 2011. Iran, having stockpiled enough highly enriched uranium for several bombs, begins to actually construct one. Israel, its red line crossed, starts the countdown to execute the long-planned operation which is expected to set the Iranian project back 10 years, when it receives an ultimatum from the US:

The operation must not be carried out. If you go ahead, we will prevent it by any means necessary, including engaging and even shooting down Israeli planes.

Since 2008, the US has had an x-band radar installation in the Negev which can detect ‘even a bird’ taking off. The facility is operated and guarded by US  personnel; it is off limits to Israelis. It was installed in order to provide early warning of Iranian missiles, but there is no way that Israel can launch a major (or minor) air operation without the US knowing.

Israel, not prepared to fight the US Navy and Air Force, backs down. The US gives assurances that it will not permit Iran to attack Israel. Iran proceeds to install its new Russian air defense system.

Meanwhile, the US finishes up its withdrawal from Iraq. Syria, in return for the Golan Heights, which it received in January as part of the comprehensive Mideast Peace settlement imposed by the Obama Administration and the Quartet, has stopped allowing Sunni insurgents and supplies to transit the border, and the majority Shiite government has managed to suppress the remaining Sunni insurgency. Obama’s foreign policy appears to be a major success, having brought peace to Iraq, ending the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Golan Heights, and creating the long-sought after state of Palestine.

Peace in our time has been achieved, says Obama, although he knows enough not to use exactly those words.

What could more natural than for the two mightiest Shiite powers to make an alliance, says the Iraqi Prime Minister, as he announces a five-year economic and military cooperation pact with Iran? And while there is some trepidation that efforts of the new Hezbollah government in Lebanon to disarm Christian militias could lead to strife in that country, most Western diplomats think that the idea of a multi-ethnic state was never really practical.

In Israel, life goes on. Especially in Tel Aviv, you can barely tell the difference between pre-peace days and now. One problem that everyone notices is that air fares are much higher, what with oil at $120/bbl. and rising, and especially since that USAIR  Airbus was hit by an antiaircraft missile fired from the West Bank just as it lifted off from Ben Gurion Airport, killing 247 passengers and crew. President Barghouti of Palestine expressed his sincere condolences to the families of the victims, but indicated that his police have insufficient resources, not enough helicopters, night-vision gear and communications equipment to effectively carry out their mission of fighting terrorism. As a result, the only carrier flying to and from Israel is El Al, whose planes are equipped with special devices to divert the type of missile known to be in the possession of terrorists.

The EL Al aircraft are heavily loaded on trips to America and Europe as those Israelis who can afford it take long vacations outside of the country ‘for the duration’.

The Israeli government has begun a project to reinforce buildings and build protective walls around towns in the area of the Syrian border. Although the peace treaty calls for an end of conflict between Israel and Syria, guerrillas thought to be associated with Hezbollah have been operating in the area, and Syrian troops are not motivated to stop them.  Meanwhile, Golan Druze who are considered pro-Israel were evacuated ahead of the Syrians and are now living in temporary camps in the Negev along with several hundred thousand settlers who were removed from the West Bank.

The evacuation of West Bank settlers was carried out with only a few hundred casualties on the part of the settlers, most of whom left their homes without armed resistance. There were a few isolated settlements where armed Jewish militants resisted evacuation, and special units of the new Volunteer Army, made up of known reliable personnel, were sent in to neutralize them. There are still some holdouts, and Israel has received sharply-worded protests from the government of Palestine in regard to them.

Right now the biggest construction project in Israel is the Palestine Contiguity Highway, to connect the Nahal Oz crossing with Hebron and thence north along the route of the existing Rt. 60 to the capital of Palestine, al-Quds. It’s to be a 150-meter wide corridor with electronic fences on either side, a highway in the middle, and service facilities along the way. Palestinian military vehicles can be seen on service roads, protecting the autos and trucks on the highway from Jewish guerrillas who lately have been harassing them, shooting and then quickly escaping. In some places, the fence is being replaced by a concrete wall to prevent this. Indeed some sections of the dismantled security barrier have been pressed into service.

This project, as well as the yet-to-be started housing for relocated settlers and Golan Druze, has been slowed by the worldwide economic depression caused by the high oil price. When asked about the possibility of increasing production, new OPEC Secretary-General Gholamhossein Nozari of Iran indicated that prices had reached a ‘natural level’ and indeed were at last compensating Middle Eastern and South American nations for years of Western exploitation.

The IDF has recently reduced standards yet again, as the difficulty of recruitment increases. Many secular youth are going abroad when they reach army age, and national-religious types – especially from the relocation centers in the Negev – are as likely to join an underground group like Tzvat Hashem as the IDF. The US-funded and trained (by General Keith Dayton) Volunteer Army has top-notch equipment, but lacks motivation. It also spends a great deal of time chasing Tzvat Hashem fighters, who make commando raids into Palestinian territory, provoking retaliatory Katyusha missile fire from the Palestinian National Army. The Israeli population shifts away from border areas which become more and more insecure.

In the North, Hezbollah has an estimated 100,000 short-range rockets targeted at Israel. Iran, which already dictates policy to Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, supports the Ikhwan in Egypt, despite ideological differences, because it prefers Islamic to Western-oriented rule. The weak government of Gamal Mubarak is overthrown, Egypt announces its abrogation of the peace treaty with Israel, and sends the Israeli ambassador home. The US cuts off aid, but Iran and Russia step into the vacuum. Iranian satellite Iraq begins to apply pressure to Jordan to also end its cooperation with Israel.

One of the great accomplishments of the peace treaty was the agreement that, while their inalienable right of return was acknowledged, Arab refugees would defer the exercise of this right to an unspecified time when the government of Israel should agree. US Secretary of State Malley even remarked “who said Arabs don’t know compromise?”

But now the Palestinian citizens of Israel (formerly called ‘Israeli Arabs’) demand an equal right of representation with the Jewish population, as well as a new flag and national anthem, etc. And the UN security council, on a motion introduced by the Iranian representative decides that if the rogue state of Israel does not grant these oppressed Arabs their ‘civil rights’, punishing economic sanctions will be applied to the already weakened Israel.

The Iranian ambassador to the US explains just what could happen to the price of oil, the US abstains, and the resolution passes. Israel, already reeling economically and socially, has no choice but to agree. More Israeli Jews begin to think that their future lies elsewhere.

Now at every opportunity, Arab Members of the Knesset introduce bills calling for the return of their refugee brothers. How can they be prevented from exercising a right that has been recognized in international treaty? How can they be allowed to continue their miserable existence (Palestine has only allowed a few to integrate, preferring to keep the great masses in camps)?

It becomes an international cause célèbre.
…
Enough.
What can we learn from this nightmare?

• Iran must not be allowed to go nuclear, no matter what.
• The Golan must not be transferred to Syria, no matter what.
• An imposed ‘peace’ settlement with the Palestinians must be resisted, no matter what.

No matter what.

Technorati Tags: Israel

I’ve been having a running discussion in the comments section of another blog with David Sokal, someone who is passionately devoted to peace between Israelis and Palestinians (but he and I differ significantly about how best to achieve this). He posted a longish comment on an old post in this blog, and rather than responding where nobody will see it, I decided to present his comment here (indented) together with my responses:

Two things:

1) Yes, obviously dialog is preferred to endless violence or the crushing of one side by the other without mercy. I think that should be clear to anyone who has seen the results of war and bloodshed first hand or even second hand.

I can’t disagree. But the implication is that dialog which would lead to peace is possible. What if dialog — combined with attrition by terrorism and pressure from external powers — is employed by one side as a tool to weaken the other, in order to make a violent ‘solution’ possible? In that case dialog leads to war, not peace.

2) It is up to the Palestinians to create a state of their own, but they might need a little help from Israel. At a minimum Israel must remove its soldiers from the West Bank and the blockade of Gaza. Furthermore, Israel will need to cooperate with Palestine on establishing a transportation route between the two segments of Palestine (Gaza and the West Bank). And finally, it would also be helpful if Israel removed all settlements from occupied territories, all of which are illegal under international law and many of which were stolen from the rightful Palestinian owners.

We already have a clear demonstration of what happens when Israel removes its soldiers from Palestinian-occupied territory: Gaza. So it would be helpful, too, if the various terrorist militias operated by Hamas and the PA were disarmed first. Maybe you are putting the cart before the horse?

The statement that “settlements are illegal under international law” is commonly made, often by those who have no understanding of what ‘international law’ actually is. Here is an argument that the settlements are legal. If you want to dispute it, go ahead.

Here are some questions for you and your readers:

1) Should the Palestinian State be built while it is under occupation?

The Israeli state was. All of the institutions necessary for a state — an educational system, health care, commerce and labor institutions, banks, etc. were in place long before the British occupiers were finally kicked out. Sure, Israel had the help of international Jewry, but no people in history has received more aid per capita than the Palestinians, and so far they’ve built very little (Hamas has built a lot of bunkers and tunnels).

2) Under what conditions should the IDF leave the West Bank?

When Israelis could be secure if the IDF were not in the West Bank.

3) Since there hasn’t been an attack for quite some time from the West Bank, why shouldn’t Israel reciprocate by, at a minimum, freezing the settlements?

Can’t you see the injustice involved in freezing the settlements? You are telling Jews that they can’t build a house on land within the boundaries of a settlement, land that they most likely have clear title to. Arab settlements inside Israel aren’t frozen, so why should Jewish ones in the West Bank be?

Also I must point out the main reason that the West Bank has been relatively quiet: the presence of the IDF.

4) What steps do you imagine still need to be taken before Israel and the PA can sit down and talk about creating a secure, viable and economically vital Palestinian state next to a secure, viable and economically vital Jewish state?

The PA has to stop the continuous flow of antisemitic incitement in their schools, mosques, television, radio, newspapers, summer camps, etc. Terrorist organizations must be disarmed. Palestinians must agree that Israel is a legitimate state of the Jewish people, and that the nakba will not be reversed. The Palestinians need to get a leadership that won’t spend the huge amounts of aid they get on weapons, explosives and distributions to members of their clans and rather invest in economic infrastructure.

5) What will the Palestinian state look like in your view? Will it be totally independent, semi-autonomous or merely a province of Israel with it’s own local authorities under the authority of the Israeli government?

It is entirely up to the Palestinians. If they continue to insist on “not one centimeter less” than pre-67 borders including all of East Jerusalem and ‘return’ of ‘refugees’ then there will never be a sovereign state. If they would honestly say “OK, the conflict is over, no more terrorism, we accept the idea of a Jewish state somewhere between the Jordan and the Mediterranean, we’ll compromise on East Jerusalem, etc.” then there could be a state.

6) If Israel continues to occupy the West Bank and continues to blockade Gaza, what does this mean for democracy in Israel? Can it rule over 4 million people, building walls and fences around and on their property, controlling their movement with armed soldiers at checkpoints dispersed throughout their land, dictating who they can and cannot elect as their leaders, building settlements the inhabitants of which claim citizenship and loyalty to another nation, arresting and imprisoning Palestinians without cause, destroying Palestinian homes as punishment or simply to replace them with settlers … can it do all this and still call itself a democracy?

There is more than some question as to whether your description of what Israel is doing is accurate! But leaving that aside, do you think that Israelis enjoy being yanked away from their lives for reserve duty at said checkpoints?  Why do you think they built the security barrier, just to piss off the Palestinians? And speaking of “claim[ing] citizenship and loyalty to another nation”, many Israeli Arabs are now calling themselves “Palestinians” and demanding that Israel grant them equal political power with the Jewish majority, change its flag and national anthem, etc. If the Jewish settlers don’t belong in the West Bank, should these Arabs live in Israel?

7) Finally, since you do not feel that all conflicts can be resolved through non-violent means, and apparently you include the conflict between Israel and Palestine in that category, what is the end game for Israel?

Israel needs to stay strong enough to repel terrorist attacks from Hamas and the various gangs associated with Fatah, and external threats, such as Hezbollah, Syria and Iran. Israel must make the cost of these Arab and Iranian military adventures so high that they will stop trying to destroy Israel by force.

Ultimately either the Palestinians will get a leadership that understands that it’s more important to help Arabs than to kill Jews, and peace can be pursued, or… not.

Technorati Tags: Israel, Palestinians

Another false alarm, or the real thing?

“Fatah has welcomed and accepted the latest proposal,” said Jibril Rajoub, the newly-elected member of Fatah’s Central Committee, who said that the proposal would bring the two rival parties closer to signing a “national unity agreement.” …

Earlier this week, sources close to Hamas told The Jerusalem Post that the two parties were scheduled to sign a reconciliation accord under the auspices of the Egyptians before the end of this year.

The sources said that the breakthrough in the Hamas-Fatah talks came after the Islamic movement’s leader, Khaled Mashaal, held talks in Cairo last weekend with senior Egyptian government officials…

The proposal, which has been accepted by both Fatah and Hamas, calls for holding presidential and parliamentary elections in the Palestinian territories in the first half of 2010 and not in January of the same year as originally planned…

On the issue of security, the initiative envisages the establishment of a security committee that would consist of “professional” officers and which would be placed under the supervision of the Egyptians. The committee’s main task would be to oversee the revamping of the Palestinian Authority security forces. — Jerusalem Post

Of course, there is nothing more important than the Palestinian ‘security forces’, whose job is to ‘fight terrorism’. Both Hamas and Fatah have multiple armed forces, far more than any similarly sized non-nation. Almost half of the salaries paid by the Fatah-ruled PA go to members of the various official militias and police forces. For example, there is the PA National Security Service, the Civil Police, the Preventive Security Service, the General Intelligence Service, the Military Intelligence Service, The Presidential Guard (now supposedly incorporating the notorious Force 17). Then of course there are the frankly terrorist al-Quds Martyrs’ Brigades and the Fatah Tanzim, which while officially not part of the PA, are paid by Fatah.

And those are just the ones I can think of, and just on the Fatah side. But I digress.

Earlier reports have said that the unity agreement will include language about ‘respecting’ prior PA-Israel agreements — in particular, the Oslo accords, which call for the PA to recognize the State of Israel — but not ‘accepting’ them. I have a hard time understanding this, but you can bet that it means that they do not agree that Israel is a legitimate nation (not to mention a Jewish one).

It will be interesting to see if a PA unity government incorporating Hamas, ‘respecting’ but not ‘accepting’, will be considered to meet the Quartet requirements for legitimacy. My guess is yes, a way will be found.

But making peace between Fatah and Hamas will have been easy, compared to imposing a settlement on Israel and the new, improved PA.

What this ‘unity’ means for Israel, if it actually happens, is that the dishonest terrorists of Fatah will be joined by the honest ones of Hamas. Together they will be the recipient of billions in international aid funds and Israel’s partner for negotiations. It’s hard to imagine that its demands will be less than those presently being made by the PA: “not one centimeter less” than the pre-67 borders including all of East Jerusalem, no settlements, a right of return, etc. And let’s not forget the demand — echoed by President Obama — that the state of Palestine must be ‘contiguous’.

Consider also that PA forces are receiving arms and training from the US and Jordan to ‘fight terrorism’. Will this continue once Hamas has joined the PA?

‘Peace process’ optimists like to quote Rabin’s statement that “you make peace with enemies, not with friends.”  But compare these two agreements signed in the name of peace between (more or less) the same parties, enemies:

• The treaty signed at Munich in September of 1938
• The one signed at Reims in May, 1945

The first one brought war, the second a true and lasting peace. What can we learn from this?

A peace agreement that worked: Reims, May 7, 1945

Technorati Tags: Israel, Palestinian Authority, Fatah, Hamas