Mahmoud Abbas intends to form a new Palestinian Authority (PA) government, without Hamas and with Salam Fayyad, the Western-educated finance minister as Prime Minister.
The US expects the international aid boycott — which was placed on the PA as a result of Hamas’ refusal to recognize Israel, renounce violence, and accept prior agreements between Israel and the PA (i.e., the Oslo agreements) — to be lifted. US military aid to Fatah in the West Bank will certainly increase.
Abbas’ Fatah movement is in a much stronger position in the West Bank than it was in Gaza, in part due to the Israeli security forces de facto control of the area. Hamas now has total control of Gaza, having wiped out any traces of resistance from Fatah.
Hamas, of course does not accept Abbas’ government as legitimate and maintains that Ismail Haniyeh is still Palestinian PM. It will be interesting to see how various governments in the Arab world and the West will line up. My guess is that Iran and Syria will support Hamas, while most of the West and the ‘moderate’ Arabs will support Abbas. I’m certain that Israel will soon resume transfers of Palestinian tax money to the new Fayyad government.
This situation will have negative and positive consequences for Israel. Negatively, there is now a full-fledged terrorist state on Israel’s southern border, although practically speaking, Hamas’ preparations for war — the weapons smuggling, tunnel-digging, etc. — were probably not significantly impacted by the now-eliminated Fatah presence. It’s not clear how Israel will deal with the issue of supplying water and electricity to an officially hostile Gaza, nor whether this will make a difference in the scope or kind of operations Israel will mount to suppress Qassam rocket fire, which has continued (although at a slightly reduced rate) through all of the recent chaos.
Positively, Hamas’ influence on the West Bank will probably decline, at least if Abbas and Fatah have anything to do with it.
This will certainly drive Abbas closer to the US and Israel. Some have suggested that Israel and the PA now have an opportunity to negotiate a peace agreement. This is a long shot. The PA would have to accept the idea of a state alongside Israel, and the same intractable issues of the past remain: refugees, Jerusalem, borders. Even if the difficult questions could be resolved, then — unlike in the past — no such agreement could cover Gaza. But talks would be advantageous in any case, since they might lead to a reduction of Israeli control (the checkpoints) in return for real action against terrorist elements.
Meanwhile, I think that Israel and the US has the right to demand of Abbas and/or Fayyad that in return for their support, an end must be put to the al-Aqsa brigades terrorist activities against Israel. It does not make sense for the US and Israel to arm terrorists that will turn their guns on Israel or transfer them to Hamas.
If there is to be any hope for the Fatah PA to get real popular support, it will have to reduce the level of corruption and control the various private gangs and militias that operate in association with it. There’s no historical precedent for this, but one can hope.
Technorati Tags: Israel, Abbas, Fayyad, Fatah, Hamas, Gaza, West Bank
Here’s a picture of a Hamas terrorist clowning around at the Rafah terminal (the border crossing between Egypt and Gaza) which is now in their hands. Possibly he’s trying to send the message that weapons, explosives, and terrorist operatives will pass through the border even more freely than before.
The decision by a British academics’ union to urge its members to boycott their Israeli counterparts has generated outrage and concern among academics and supporters of Israel. The stunningly illogical decision to shun Israeli academic institutions threatens some of the organizations most involved in promoting peace and human rights in Gaza and the West Bank and could impede progress Israeli universities enable in scores of fields.